Constructing scenarios to gradually open the economy

The world economy is entering a period of rapid recovery. Many forecasts show that the group of developed countries with high vaccination rates will recover quickly and strongly while emerging economies and developing countries will slow down a beat, particularly economies with a heavy dependence on tourism and exports. From now on, Vietnam needs to actively build scenarios to gradually open the economy without waiting until the end of the pandemic.

Vaccination against COVID-19 for a worker at Noi Bai International Airport in Hanoi.
Vaccination against COVID-19 for a worker at Noi Bai International Airport in Hanoi.

“Breaking the ice” cautiously

Opening the economy was officially raised in the Project on promoting economic growth in 2021 as drafted by the Ministry of Planning and Investment and submitted to the Government in late June 2021.

Dr. Nguyen Duc Kien, head of the Prime Minister's Advisory Group, said that the concept of opening must be placed in the overall operation of the economy during the pandemic, including the key tasks that Vietnam is trying to implement such as protecting production activities in industrial parks, ensuring goods circulation and movement of people, facilitating exports, and devising plans to resume international flights in accordance with strict requirements on pandemic prevention and control.

The arrangement of accommodation for workers to work and live at factories in Ho Chi Minh City, Binh Duong and Dong Nai, the workers’ acceptance of stricter working and living conditions, and the support for vaccine approach and production plans through “wartime” policies demonstrate the cautious and gradual opening of the economy.

The next is to open the door for the tourism and service sectors. The more complicated and difficult the situation, the more quickly scenarios to be introduced to promote coordination in implementation, Kien noted.

Many large economies have organised large-scale vaccination and reopened their economies for the summer tourist season of 2021. Thanks to the month-long preparations for a tourist area exclusively for international visitors fully vaccinated, Thailand has welcomed 300 tourists from Israel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, and Singapore to Phuket since July 1, making Phuket the first destination in Southeast Asia welcoming tourists back.

Vietnam has a policy for studying and piloting the use of vaccine passports for international visitors to Phu Quoc. In order to implement this policy, epidemic prevention and control experts must answer the question of whether to apply the vaccine passport, where vaccinated tourists with negative test results can only stay at the resorts or going out, among others.

According to Dr. Nguyen Duc Kien, the number of Vietnamese COVID-19 patients out of the total population is still low while the number of severe cases is also minimal, thus the health sector still has the conditions to use complex treatment methods. Vietnam can also boost its economic activities as it is still benefiting the results of the previous three anti-pandemic periods, Kien added.

Cannot wait until the end of the pandemic

Chairman of the Board of Directors of Vietnam Travel and Marketing Transports JSC Nguyen Quoc Ky said that Vietnam can partially open economic activities through the establishment of safe areas with a population injection rate of over 70% and by gradually resuming international and domestic tourism for people fully vaccinated and having a negative PCR test.

Outbound connections must comply with pandemic prevention and control regulations. Visitors to the safe area will be restricted from going outside for three days for testing. If they test negative, they can go out and live in the local community. Localities that can implement early opening include Phu Quoc, Con Dao, Nha Trang, Ly Son island, Nam Hoi An, Cat Ba, and Tuan Chau, Ky noted.

The national flag carrier, Vietnam Airlines, operated its first flight applying electronic health passports of the International Air Transport Association (IATA Travel Pass) to transport passengers who are foreign experts and Vietnamese citizens from Japan to Da Nang International Airport on July 15.

Deputy General Director of Vietnam Airlines, Trinh Hong Quang, said that right after there was a policy of seven-day quarantine for tourists with full doses of vaccine in Van Don, Quang Ninh, Vietnam Airlines actively proposed to transport passengers to Phu Quoc and Quang Nam.

“We are constantly developing and updating our operating scenarios in line with the new developments of the economy in order to have appropriate solutions. This is a necessary trial process to be ready for the plan to resume international flights,” Quang added.

With the growth results in the first six months of this year lower than targeted, if there is no appropriate solution to control the pandemic and promote growth, GDP growth in 2021 may only reach 5.6%.

There have been comments that Vietnam is fighting the pandemic well, but escaping from the pandemic and opening up the economy more slowly than others in the world.

“Besides speeding up COVID-19 vaccination, localities should not apply extreme anti-epidemic measures that affect people's movement. We cannot slow down the opening speed either. This requires the Government, leaders of ministries, sectors and localities to dare to think, dare to do, and dare to take responsibility as the Prime Minister has said, instead of waiting until the conclusion of the pandemic,” said Nguyen Dinh Cung, former head of the Central Institute for Economic Management.

The scenario for reopening the economy should include important milestones such as the timing of reopening aviation activities and international tourism and a reduction of the isolation period for people fully vaccinated in accordance with the situation of pandemic control and the vaccination rate in the country.

The development of the scenario will be of great significance, both helping the Government actively administer and encourage people to be vaccinated, while helping businesses and people proactively forecast and prepare their business plans, according to the Ministry of Planning and Investment.