At present, the size of the Vietnam economy is about US$224 billion, or about 69% of Singapore’s economy (US$324 billion), which is also the third largest in the region, behind Indonesia and Thailand.
Vietnam has the potential to grow at a pace of about 6-6.5% over the next decade, thanks to strong foreign investment inflow and productivity growth in the coming years.
“If it can sustain that pace of growth, Vietnam’s economy will be bigger than Singapore’s economy in ten years’ time,” Singapore-based economist Irvin Seah said in a research note issued on May 28.
DBS forecast that if Vietnam can maintain the growth pace of about 6-6.5% in the coming years, and that Singapore continues to grow at a matured pace of about 2.5%, then the real GDP of these two economies will intersect by 2029.
Vietnam’s government expects gross domestic product to expand at least 6.8% this year. Future growth will be boosted as the nation’s favourable demographic dynamic, productive labour force, much-improved infrastructure and stable politics encourage international inflows, said Seah.
“Global investors have been lining up to be a part of the Vietnam narrative,” he said, adding that strong FDI from China and Hong Kong (China) in the first four months of this year might well mark the beginning of a new trend.
