Fierce competitions on final match day in AFF Cup group stage

The current rankings in Groups A and B are quite similar as the two leading teams in each group share the same score of seven points, while the two teams ranked third also have six points and still have a realistic chance of competing for the semi-final ticket with the group leaders.

In their final game, Vietnam will host neighbours Cambodia who were eliminated after the previous three matches. Although currently ranked No. 2 in Group A level on points with group leaders Myanmar but with worse statistics in goals scored, coach Park Hang Seo's side are holding the biggest advantage to finish the group stage in top spot and win the ticket to the semi-finals.

Having to host underdogs Cambodia at Hanoi’s Hang Day Stadium, winning a point against the already eliminated Cambodia is not a mission impossible for the Golden Stars. Meanwhile, Myanmar have to travel to play third placed Malaysia. The home team will definitely seek a win to ensure their chance to progress, so an easy match for the visitors seems unlikely.

A win against Cambodia will guarantee a berth for Vietnam in the knockout stages, but a draw is enough, regardless of the result in the remaining match between Malaysia and Myanmar. Even if they lose to Cambodia, Park's team still have the opportunity to progress if Malaysia fail to beat Myanmar. Vietnam can only be eliminated if they lose to Cambodia and Myanmar also lose to Malaysia with a lesser margin, or if Vietnam lose to Cambodia with five or more goals conceded, while Myanmar draw with Malaysia. In both cases, Cambodia have to win with a considerable margin to kick Vietnam out of the tournament, however, with the form of both sides in the past three match days, the possibility for this permutation to happen is highly unlikely.

Vietnam only need one point in the last round to progress to the semi-finals, regardless of the result of the Malaysia vs Myanmar clash. (Photo: AFF Suzuki Cup 2018)

Vietnam can win the group if they beat Cambodia and Myanmar fail to get three points, or if both Vietnam and Myanmar win but Vietnam end up with better goal difference. The winning scenario for Park’s players is more likely to happen because Cambodia were eliminated and have no reason to play defensively in their final game. Therefore, coach Keisuke Honda’s side will likely play on the attack at Hang Day and this will be an opportunity for the hosts to deploy a comprehensive attack, thus opening up an attractive match.

After the match against Myanmar on November 20, the Vietnamese squad returned to Hanoi on Wednesday and had a training session yesterday to prepare for their final game on Saturday. Tickets have sold out already and the home fans are looking forward to a convincing victory tomorrow evening.

For Myanmar, the 0-0 draw against Vietnam on Tuesday keeps them on top of the table thanks to better goals scored, but a tough visit to Kuala Lumpur’s Bukit Jalil Stadium is ahead. Against Malaysia, coach Antoine Hey’s side only need one point to ensure one of the top two spots. A loss against Malaysia combined with Vietnam getting any result against Cambodia would send Myanmar home.

However, the opportunity for Myanmar to remain at the top of Group A remains if they defeat Malaysia and Vietnam cannot win three points against Cambodia, or if both Myanmar and Vietnam win, but Park's players end up not having a better goal difference than the Burmese. Goal difference will also be considered to determine the two top spots if Myanmar and Vietnam both draw in their last matches. Myanmar will have the advantage if Vietnam don’t force more goals in their respective match.

The current rankings in Group A. (Photo: AFF Suzuki Cup 2018)

For Malaysia, the task will be more difficult as the home team have to win to go forward. If they draw with visitors Myanmar, the fate of Harimau Malaya will have to rely on Cambodia beating Vietnam by more than five goals to help erase Vietnam’s goal difference cushion. However, Malaysia can still win the group if they beat Myanmar and Vietnam fail to get the maximum points against Cambodia.

The permutations in Group B are similar to Group A. Defending champions Thailand and the Philippines are sharing the two leading positions in Group B with both level on seven points, followed by third placed Singapore only one point behind.

To progress to the next stage, the defending champions need at least a draw against the Lions who are “thirsty” for points in the match at Rajamangala Stadium in Bangkok on November 25. If they beat the visitors, the War Elephants will almost certainly top the table because they have a superior goal difference compared to the second ranked Philippines. Thailand will still retain top spot if they match the result that the Philippines produce in their final group game against Indonesia. However, they are still in danger of being eliminated if they lose to Singapore and the Philippines have any result on their Indonesian trip, or the defending champions lose heavily to Singapore, with the Philippines also losing to Indonesia but with better goals conceded than Thailand.

Although leading Group B, Thailand still face the risk of elimination after the final round of the group stage. (Photo: AFF Suzuki Cup 2018)

The Philippines also needs at least one point against Indonesia to go forward. Even if they lose the match, Sven-Goran Eriksson's team can still progress if Singapore also lose to Thailand. The Azkals also have a chance of finishing as the group winners if they defeat Indonesia, while Thailand do not gain the maximum three points against Singapore, or both the Philippines and Thailand win, but the Azkals produce a better goal difference, which is rather unlikely considering Thailand have a +9 goal difference (compared to +2 by the Philippines) going into the final match day.

For Singapore, the match with Thailand plays a very important role to their self-determined right for the semi-final ticket. The Lions have to beat Thailand to secure their place in the next round, but a draw will be enough if the Philippines fail in Indonesia's hands. Even Singapore could win the top spot if they beat Thailand, and the Philippines slip-up against Indonesia.

The current rankings in Group B. (Photo: AFF Suzuki Cup 2018)

According to AFF Cup regulations, the rankings in each group shall be determined in descending order as follows: greater number of points obtained in all the group matches, goal difference in all the group matches, and greater number of goals scored in all the group matches. If two or more teams are equal on the basis of the above three criteria, the rankings shall be determined as follows: result of the direct match between the teams concerned, kicks from the penalty mark if the teams concerned are still on the field of play; lowest score using Fair Play criteria; and drawing of lots by the organisers.