Vietnamese team with a great opportunity to reach decisive round of World Cup qualifiers

The latest developments in the second stage of the 2022 World Cup Asian qualifiers have helped increase the chances of coach Park Hang-seo's side to secure a ticket to the final qualifying round.

The Vietnamese team can still go through even if they only finish second in Group G. (Photo: AFC)
The Vietnamese team can still go through even if they only finish second in Group G. (Photo: AFC)

Currently, in Group G, Vietnam are still firmly at the top with 14 points after six matches, two ahead the second-placed team, UAE. Vietnam will win a ticket to the next round for the first time in history if they beat Malaysia tonight and then gain at least one point against hosts UAE in the last match four days later. Park’s side will then definitely top the table with at least 18 points and win a direct ticket to the next round as group winners.

However, if the UAE crush Indonesia in the other match tonight and beat Vietnam in the final clash, the Vietnamese will then rank 2nd in the group (provided they beat Malaysia). Vietnam will finish second and will have to compare their results with the 2nd ranked teams in other groups to progress.

The current rankings in Group G of the second qualifying round of the 2022 World Cup Asian qualifiers. (Photo: AFC)

The eight group winners and the four best group runners-up advance to the third round of FIFA World Cup Asian qualification as well as qualify for the 2023 AFC Asian Cup finals. Since Qatar won Group E and advanced to Asian Cup only, the fifth best runner-up will also advance to the World Cup qualifying third round and also to Asian Cup.

Due to the DPR Korea’s withdrawal from Group H, the other teams’ results against the fifth-placed team of each group are not counted in determining the rankings of the runner-up teams.

To secure at least 2nd place in Group G, the Vietnamese team still need to beat Malaysia in their penultimate match tonight. Supposing Vietnam lose to the UAE in the last round and lose first place to their opponents, in that case, Vietnam will have 17 points and finish the second stage of the World Cup qualifiers in second place. Considering the performance of the 2nd ranked teams, Vietnam now has 11 points (due to the six points from the two wins against the bottom team Indonesia). To win ticket to the next round, the Vietnamese team will have to overcome at least three other second-placed teams.

Among the best runner-up teams, Lebanon in Group H are in the lead with 10 points. They still have one last match against hosts the Republic of Korea (ROK), who have already won a ticket to the next round. The ROK have 13 points and lead the table with a goal difference of +20. If Lebanon want to take the top spot from the ROK, they (with a goal difference of +4) needs to win with an extremely high score when the two teams meet in the last match, a task that could be said to be impossible. Lebanon will still have to win this match to be sure to surpass Vietnam as among best runner-up teams. But it will be difficult for Lebanon to win, even earn a draw against the ROK. Therefore, Vietnam will benefit greatly if Lebanon lose to the ROK.

In Group B, Australia are almost through after six consecutive wins and a +22 goal difference. They just need to secure one more victory over Nepal to book their place in the next round. The competition for 2nd place in this group is unpredictable. Jordan, who are temporarily ranked 2nd with 13 points and 3rd Kuwait with 10 points are both in contention. They each have two matches left, including a direct confrontation in the next match. If Kuwait beat Jordan, the Vietnamese team will also definitely rank above the second-placed team in this group.

The current scores of the Vietnamese team compared to the eight second-place teams (excluding results against the bottom teams in each group).

The situation in Groups C and D are relatively similar as the top two teams Iraq and Saudi Arabia have 14 points each, and the second teams Iran and Uzbekistan have 12 points each. The first and second teams in these two groups, respectively, still have two matches yet to play, of which one is a direct confrontation. As long as one of the two runner-up teams do not win in their matches against the first team in each group, that team will definitely be below Vietnam in the second placed rankings.

In Group F, apart from Japan already through as group winners, Kyrgyzstan are currently second with 10 points and can only have a maximum of seven points when compared with the final second-placed teams. Tajikistan are temporarily ranked 3rd with 10 points. Both teams can only secure a maximum of 13 points to finish second in the group. When considering the second-placed teams, they will also have only seven points. Therefore, it is difficult for both to enter the group of the top five best runner-up teams to compete for tickets to the next round.

In Group E, Qatar have played eight matches and top the group with 22 points. Second place in this group almost certainly belongs to Oman, who currently have 12 points and two matches left, meeting two weak teams, Afghanistan and Bangladesh, respectively. The maximum score that Oman can collect when compared to the other second-place teams is also 12 points. Vietnam are unlikely to be able to compete against Oman in this group.

In Group A, Syria will go on to take the first place in the group with 21 points, even though there is still one game left. China are ranked second with 13 points after six matches and have a great advantage in both goal difference (+20) and points collected. If they win the remaining two matches, including the match against Syria, China will be sure to take second place in the group and will also outperform the Vietnamese team when comparing achievements of the second-placed teams.

Thus, according to the above analysis, the chances for Vietnam to go on as one of the five excellent second-placed teams is still great, with the prerequisite that Vietnam have to win against Malaysia tonight, before taking into account results in other groups.