Green transition

Climate change has been posing a serious threat to global economic growth, causing unpredictable consequences. The “cries for help” from the Arctic where a record amount of ice has melted, and the increasing severe weather phenomena causing wildfires and terrible floods are urging humanity to take urgent action to cope with climate change.

Warmer-than-normal seawater slows the formation of new ice in October. (Reuters)
Warmer-than-normal seawater slows the formation of new ice in October. (Reuters)

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the UN’s authoritative voice on weather, climate and water, recently warned that climate change will drive global temperatures to increase at a faster rate than normal despite the “cooling” effects of La Niña in 2020. According to WMO, La Niña has developed and is expected to last into next year, affecting temperatures, precipitation and storm patterns in many parts of the world. However, global warming could undermine La Niña’s effects, causing the weather to become more extreme and affecting the water cycle. Although La Niña typically has a global cooling effect, but this is more than offset by the heat trapped in our atmosphere by greenhouse gases. Given that fact, 2020 has become one of the hottest years and 2016-2020 is set to be the warmest five-year period on record.

Meanwhile, scientists have warned that the amount of ice in the Arctic Ocean surrounding the Arctic has melted to a record low in October, reflecting a slow recovery in the context of winter drawing near. With such a thawing rate, the Arctic Ocean is moving towards the prospect of no more ice in the summer. Shrinking sea ice means the ocean absorbs more heat, putting people at risk of suffering from the devastating impacts of climate change. WMO said that temperatures in the Arctic are rising twice as fast as the global average, seriously affecting the cryosphere and triggering the risks of floods due to the “explosion” of glaciers in the world.

The aforementioned reality has rung an “alarm bell” about the threats of climate change to human life. Poor countries are the most vulnerable to suffer the serious consequences of climate change.

Africa is considered to be the area most severely damaged by floods, droughts, global warming and the raging locust swarms. Rising temperatures cause a sharp drop in crop yields, while agriculture is the backbone of many African economies. According to researches, Africa’s GDP will decrease by 2.25% to 12.12% as the temperature increases. The sub-Saharan region has suffered from constant extreme weather events that affect tens of millions of people and threatened food security, causing direct economic losses of more than US$500 million. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) assessed that Africa will need between US$30-50 billion per year in the next decade to adapt to climate change, including the expansion of investment in “green” projects. This figure is equivalent to between 2-3% of the continent’s annual GDP.

However, it is not just poor countries, even the rich ones are not immune from the negative impacts of climate change. A study led by CE Delft, comprised of a group of social and environmental monitoring agencies based in the Netherlands, provided an in-depth analysis of air quality, health data and transport in more than 400 European cities, which showed that urban residents in Europe lose more than EUR160 billion annually due to the health impacts of air pollution. London has the highest social cost due to pollution as its residents lose EUR11.38 billion of their welfare. The annual Air Quality Life Index (AQLI) data published by the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago also points out that air pollution reduces the life expectancy of every person on Earth by nearly two years. Nearly 25% of the global population are living in four South Asian countries which are in the group of nations with the most severe air pollution.

During a recent virtual meeting on climate change which saw the participation of 52 finance ministers around the world, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva urged countries to prioritise economic policies in the fight against climate change, because it is a major threat to growth and prosperity. The IMF leader stressed the need to ensure “green” investment in the anti-COVID-19 budget and to minimise the impacts of the pandemic on the economy.

Given the risk of the disease distracting the world from the fight against climate change, UN officials and financial institutions called on countries to devote resources towards stopping the climate crises. While countries are seeking ways to recover from the economic shock caused by the pandemic, experts have proposed some basic measures to stabilise the global climate. Accordingly, countries should promote change in the structures and transition in the system of energy production and consumption towards building a green economy, considering this a new direction to help limit the increasingly negative developments of the global climate.