From the risk of being sidelined in resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict to the chill in relations with the US, Europe has realised that it's time to take a more active role in regional security structures rather than relying on Washington's “security umbrella”, however this will not be easy to achieve.
The positive atmosphere in recent negotiations between the US and Russia over the situation in Ukraine is increasingly worrying the European Union (EU).
The recent phone call between the US and Russian Foreign Ministers discussing the conflict in Ukraine has paved the way for important talks between US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.
The scenario where countries reach an agreement without EU involvement is causing concern in Europe, as the region will have to bear the impact of the negotiation outcomes. Europe's position and voice are being severely weakened in the rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.
More than ever, the EU is prioritising the enhancement of its defence capabilities, as its long-standing ally, the US, adopts new approaches.
President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that Europe must take on more security responsibilities and questioned whether the US should maintain its central role in the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). The shadow of tariffs with retaliatory measures also looms over the alliance.
The European Commission (EC) has announced counter tariffs on 26 billion USD worth of US goods in response to the US decision to impose a 25% tariff on steel and aluminium from the EU.
Recently, President Trump reaffirmed that he does not intend to make any exceptions on steel and aluminium.
The EU's ambition for defence autonomy and increased influence over the situation in Ukraine is facing numerous challenges, such as financial issues and internal divisions. The EU has proposed increasing military aid to Ukraine to up to 40 billion EUR in 2025, however this has sparked controversy within the bloc.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has repeatedly refused to send weapons to Ukraine, arguing that instead of prolonging the conflict, Europe should support President Trump's proposed peace negotiations.
To bolster its defence capabilities, EU leaders have agreed on a plan to “rearm Europe” with a budget of 800 billion EUR. France and Italy have also confirmed the purchase of new air defence missiles. However, the implementation of this plan will not be straightforward.
US media has noted that, in the long term, increased military spending means European countries will have to reduce social support programs. Cutting government spending on pensions and healthcare will be particularly challenging, as Europe has the highest proportion of elderly population in the world.
Despite supporting the plan to rearm Europe, some EU members are reportedly hesitant due to financial pressures, including Italy, which has a public debt-to-GDP ratio of 137% in 2024.
Moreover, RIA Novosti reported that, with current production capacity, Europe will need at least six to seven years to match the US ammunition contributions over the past three years.
The profound strategic shift from its transatlantic ally (the US) is placing the EU in a difficult position. Recent polls by NBC News show that President Trump's approval rating among Americans has reached 47%, the highest since he took office.
If Washington continues to prioritise its own interests as it does now, Brussels will have to find its own path despite the challenges, gradually repositioning its role in an unstable and unpredictable world.
