It is forecast that import and export activities in 2024 still face many risks that are difficult to predict, requiring more efforts to maintain export recovery momentum and increase by about 6% compared to 2023.
As a highly open economy, Vietnam cannot avoid the negative effects of external fluctuations. This is one of the main reasons that continue to impact macroeconomic stability, the overall growth prospects of the economy, as well as the recovery of exports in the coming time.
By the end of the first quarter of 2023, exports recorded a decrease of 11.8% over the same period, of which the domestic enterprise sector decreased more sharply (down 17.4%) than the foreign-invested sector (down 10%). But since the end of the second quarter of 2023, there have been signs of recovery as exports next month are higher than the previous month (May 2023 increased by 4.3% compared to the previous month; June increased by 4.5%; July increased by 0.8%; September increased by 9%). By the end of the year, the export reduction has narrowed to only 4.4% compared to 2022.
Notably, compared to the decline in exports of other countries in the region, Vietnam's exports have recovered well.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, this result is partly because we have well implemented the market diversification strategy in the context of declining exports to major markets. Export turnover to small markets such as Africa, Eastern Europe, Northern Europe, and Western Asia, all recorded good increases.
In addition, effectively managing and opening export activities to China, basic goods are not congested, even during peak seasons, contributing to increasing export turnover to this market. China is also Vietnam's only major export market to achieve positive growth of 8.1% for 2023, while other major markets, such as the US and EU, all decrease.
Another notable mark in this year's import-export picture is that the trade balance continues to have a trade surplus for the eighth consecutive year, with an estimated surplus of 28 billion USD, an increase of nearly three times compared to 2022. This contributes to improving foreign exchange reserves and stabilising exchange rates and other macroeconomic indicators of the economy.
Entering 2024, the world and domestic economy have many more positive factors for import and export activities. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has issued messages to stop raising interest rates and consider reducing interest rates in 2024. The problem of high inventory in the US is also gradually being overcome.
However, the Import and Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) forecasts that the import and export activities in 2024 still face many risks that are difficult to predict. The trend of trade protection increases, so many countries have measures to attract investment back home and set trade barriers to promote domestic production.
Besides prices, product quality and delivery time, greening and sustainable development are requirements for suppliers to major markets such as the US, EU and Japan.
Therefore, Vietnamese export businesses must proactively grasp market information, and trade promotion is one of the most effective ways to support businesses in penetrating the market.
In general, in 2024, external pressures on export activities are expected to come from three channels: the international trade channel, as many major economies and partners of Vietnam, are growing slowly, leading to a challenging overall demand recovery and affecting export results; the international investment channel, as the global interest rate remains generally high, making it difficult to attract capital for investment, putting pressure on retaining the already invested capital in Vietnam, as well as attracting new investments; the financial and monetary channel, with the pressure of the devaluation of the domestic currency against the USD, while somewhat favourable for exports, will increase the cost of importing raw materials for production and increase the scale of foreign debt repayments.
Meanwhile, Vietnam's exports also have many limitations, such as being heavily dependent on the FDI sector (accounting for about 73% of the country's total export turnover); Added value in exports has not been as expected; Export turnover to most major markets decreased, although the decline is gradually narrowing.
Therefore, to achieve the goal of export recovery, increasing by about 6% compared to 2023, the import and export department will focus on implementing many solutions to support businesses to take advantage of commitments in free trade agreements (FTA) and strengthen activities providing market information on digital platforms, supporting businesses in overcoming new trade barriers in import markets.
Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Hong Dien said that 2024 is a decisive year for implementing the five-year plan goals (2021-2025) in a context where it is forecasted to continue to have many difficulties and challenges.
In that context, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will focus on promoting international economic integration and proactively advise on exploiting opportunities from foreign relations with major countries to catch the wave of shifting investment in key industries to third countries by multinational corporations, especially in the fields, such as Electronics industry, digital infrastructure, logistics infrastructure, clean energy, new materials industry, exploitation and processing of precious minerals, chips and semiconductors.
The Ministry will also strengthen the effective implementation of solutions to closely connect foreign-invested enterprises with domestic enterprises to promote the development of management skills and technology transfer and improve the competitiveness of Vietnamese businesses, meeting the requirements of increasingly participating in the global production and supply chain.
In addition, the ministry continues to promote the role of the system of Vietnamese Trade Promotion Agencies abroad in supporting localities and businesses to effectively exploit FTAs, in which Vietnam is a member to diversify the market, supply chain and export promotion, actively advising on negotiations, signing new and upgrading FTAs with potential partners in the Middle East, Africa and South America.
At the same time, the ministry will increase support for businesses to strongly shift to official exports associated with brand building and promoting sustainable exports. The ministry also focuses on innovating trade promotion work, closely combining traditional and modern trade, e-commerce, and digital economy, effectively exploiting the potential domestic market, strengthening market management and improving trade defence capacity, protecting production and consumer interests, and following international commitments.
