The think tank made the prediction at a workshop on the Quarter III Independent Assessment of Vietnam’s Macroeconomic Performance held in Hanoi on October 21.
VEPR chief economist Pham The Anh said that amid the serious impacts of the COVID-19 on the global economy, Vietnam is among only a few countries in the world which recorded a positive economic growth rate in the third quarter of 2020, at 2.62%. The country’s GDP in the January-September period expanded by 2.12%.
Regarding Vietnam's economic prospects in 2020, Pham The Anh said that the economy will depend on the ability to control the pandemic not only within the country but around the world. If the control of the COVID-19 pandemic in the remaining months of the year is as goodas now, Vietnam can achieve a growth rate of 2.6-2.8%.
“Factors that could support growth for the rest of the year include expectations on the economic outlook thanks to the coming into force of the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) and the EU-Vietnam Investment Protection Agreement (EVIPA), the acceleration of the disbursement and construction progress of key public investment projects, low costs of raw materials due to declining demand and production, investment shifting waves to disperse risks from the US-China trade war and taking advantage of investment incentives in Vietnam”, economist Anh emphasised.
However, Anh noted that Vietnam is also facing many challenges in an uncertain global economic environment.The weaknesses of the Vietnamese economy also comefrom internal risks including fiscal imbalance, the slowdown in development investment, a vulnerable banking and financial system, the heavy reliance of growth on the foreign invested sector and stagnancy in the equitisation of State-owned enterprises, among others.