Scientists warned that climate change, manifested as global warming, is increasing extreme weather events, in which heat waves occur more frequently and more severely, and the temperature has increased like never before.
2024 is forecast to be the next record-hot year, "overthrowing" the heat record in 2023. Large areas of the world are already experiencing high temperatures before summer begins in the northern hemisphere. According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Mediterranean countries have been hit by more extreme heat, sparking wildfires from Portugal to Greece and along the Algerian coast in North Africa. Areas in the Midwest and Northeast of the US are also experiencing intense heat, forcing authorities to issue heat warnings that can be dangerous to people's health. A relentless heat wave has scorched most of the US, with many areas reaching record temperatures. In Asia, intense heat has also caused some countries to raise their heat warning levels.
Intense heat
The US National Weather Service (NWC) issued a prolonged extreme heat warning on the country’s East Coast and the Midwest, affecting nearly 72 million people. NWC warned that the hottest temperatures will likely occur in parts of Ohio and Indiana. The Midwest is not the only region suffering from scorching heat, as high and extreme heat warnings and advisories have been issued across the Northeast, mid-Atlantic and several Western states. New York City said it has opened places to rest from the heat, with cooling equipment to serve people. The US Meteorological Agency also issued a severe heat warning for parts of Arizona, as temperatures are predicted to reach 45.5 degrees Celsius.
In Europe, even before summer officially began, many countries recorded several deaths due to heat. Unusually prolonged heat has caused three foreign tourists to die in Greece. In Asia, intense heat has plagued many areas of India, in recent weeks. Many regions in northern India have suffered from a heat wave which started in mid-May, with temperatures reaching more than 45 degrees Celsius. Health officials in this country said that at least 110 people have died, due to the heat from March 13 to June 18. India is experiencing its longest heat wave ever. India is the world's third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases but has committed to achieving a neutral emission target by 2070. Currently, the country depends entirely on coal for electricity production. During the latest heat wave, the temperature in the capital New Delhi was on par with the city's previous record high of 49.2 degrees Celsius, recorded in 2022. The heat caused the demand for cooling to increase, putting pressure on the power network, and increasing electricity demand to a record level of 8,302 MW.
Meanwhile, China's National Meteorological Administration (NMC) said a major heat wave could spread across areas in the country’s north, pushing temperatures to record highs in some areas. According to the NMC, the heat wave, which began on June 8, forced authorities to issue climate warnings, after China recorded the hottest spring in history. China's National Observatory has issued an orange warning for high temperatures - the second most serious warning, as sweltering heat engulfed the northern region.
Factors that increase the level of danger
Scientific research showed that climate change makes heat waves last longer, more frequent and more intense. According to scientists, without climate change, the world would not have experienced an average of 26 additional days of extreme heat, over the past 12 months. Human-caused climate change is why the world’s average number of extreme heat days in 2023 increased by 26 days. Extreme heat has affected many regions of the world from Mexico to Pakistan. In the past 12 months, 6.3 billion people - about 80% of the global population - have suffered at least 31 days of extreme heat. A total of 76 extreme heat waves occurred in 90 different countries on every continent, except Antarctica. Among the most affected countries, five are in the Latin American region.
Scientific research showed that climate change makes heat waves last longer, more frequent and more intense. Human-caused climate change is why the world’s average number of extreme heat days in 2023 increased by 26 days.
Meanwhile, the deadly heatwave that has recently blanketed the US, Mexico and Central America is likely to increase 35-fold due to global warming. Analysing the five hottest consecutive days and nights in a “heat dome”, spanning the southwestern US, Mexico, Guatemala, Belize, El Salvador and Honduras, in late May and early June this year, a scientific research team by World Weather Attribution (WWA) - an organisation specialising in assessing the role of climate change in extreme weather patterns around the world, has concluded that human-caused warming from burning fossil fuels have made the maximum temperature on the five hottest days, about 1.4 degrees Celsius higher, with this phenomenon about 35 times more likely to occur. The likelihood of such high heat levels appearing in the above areas last May and June was four times higher than 25 years ago.
There is currently no complete picture of heat-related deaths, as these cases are often only confirmed and reported months after the incident. However, WWA warned that if people continue to burn fossil fuels, such extreme events could become more frequent and millions more people will be exposed to dangerous heat levels, in the future.
High temperatures are the leading cause of climate-related deaths. Extreme heat has claimed the lives of tens of thousands of people in the past 12 months, but the real number could be hundreds of thousands or even millions. High temperatures are the most deadly extreme weather event but are often underestimated, especially for children, the elderly and people who work outdoors.
The 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change urged countries to limit global temperature rise to below 2 degrees Celsius, above pre-industrial levels, while aiming for a safer target of 1.5 degrees Celsius. However, studies show that by the end of 2023, human activities have pushed the Earth's temperature 1.31 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels. The Earth has warmed a total of 1.43 degrees Celsius when taking into account other natural factors, including the El Nino weather phenomenon.
The main cause of global warming is greenhouse gas emissions, which are at their highest level ever. Specifically, the average annual emissions in 2013-2022 are 53 billion tonnes of CO2 and other equivalent gases, mainly from fossil fuels such as oil and gas. In 2022 alone, emissions reached 55 billion tonnes. This means the world's "carbon budget", the estimated amount of greenhouse gases that could be emitted before pushing the Earth past the 1.5C temperature rise threshold, is falling rapidly. In 2020, the IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change calculated the remaining “carbon budget” to be about 500 billion tonnes. By early 2024, this number has dropped to about 200 billion tonnes.
According to experts, if emissions remain at current levels, global warming will stay at the same level. Without significant changes in emissions cuts, the 1.5 degree Celsius temperature threshold will be surpassed and become the “long-term average” within the next decade. Faced with the threats of climate change, the world must reduce emissions steadily and bring them to net zero.
