Transformation trend
The world entered a cycle of low economic growth in 2023 after the COVID-19 pandemic ended the period of strong growth for the global economy. After three years of closure to fight the epidemic, China restarted its economy, bringing great hope to the world economic recovery process. However, the world’s second-largest economy witnessed a clear deceleration, with declining exports. The US and Eurozone economies were also stagnant, but positive employment indicators in the US and reduced inflation in Europe have helped the world’s number one economy and Europe avoid a crisis. Emerging economies, except India, also fell into a cycle of low growth over the past year.
The trend of low and slow growth has not stopped, but the global economy is forecast to be more positive in 2024. The trend of global transformation in growth, energy, food and others is increasingly visible when concepts and phrases such as green transition, circular economy, and clean energy appear frequently in international conferences and the commitments and actions of countries towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG).
However, economic difficulties do not hinder the rapid development of science and technology and the explosion of artificial intelligence (AI) with the launch and rapid acceleration of the ChatGPT application. Great powers with advanced levels of science and technology are leading the race to develop AI. Technology opens up many creative opportunities and promises to bring prosperity to people, but also poses many challenges. The first global summit on AI safety in the UK adopted the Bletchley Declaration, recognising the world’s consensus on coordination in the safe and responsible development and application of this advanced technology. The effectiveness of the European Union’s (EU) Digital Services Act, along with measures to tighten the management of online platforms, despite controversy, promoted greater social responsibility amid false and fake news spreading on social networks.
Urgent requirement for strengthening cooperation
The gloomy situation in developed economies promotes the trend of continuing to shift focus to the Asia-Pacific region and more broadly, the Indo-Pacific, which is also a region of competition between great powers. The year 2023 witnessed not only the “competition” between the two superpowers of the US and China but also the race among “middle powers” for influence in the region.
In 2024, Russian-Western competition is expected to maintain at last year’s level, when the conflict in Ukraine has not found a way out, while NATO completed the admission procedures for Finland and is ready to welcome Sweden to join. In 2023, Russia and the US were not able to start a dialogue related to global security and arms control treaties, while both the US and EU imposed new sanctions against Russia.
As a new conflict hotspot, fighting between Israel and Hamas forces in the Gaza Strip in the last months of 2023 caused pain and damage to civilians. In 2024, the conflict is forecast to decrease in the level of danger, but the Israeli-Palestinian peace process based on the two-state solution is unlikely to achieve a breakthrough if the parties and the international community do not make an effort to find ways to build sustainable peace for the region.
Africa was also marked as a hot spot of instability in the global picture in 2023, as military coups occurred in Niger and Gabon, extending the chain of political upheavals in the West African region. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) made efforts to intervene and impose sanctions on military governments, but the unstable situation in West African countries has not cooled down, resulting in more consequences for 2024.
International cooperation is forecast to accelerate with stronger voices from southern countries in 2024. The expansion trend of important regional and international organisations over the past year reflected the greater role of developing countries, as the G20 granted permanent member status to the African Union (AU) and the group of leading emerging economies (BRICS) expanded the bloc, by admitting more developing economies, including Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
At the 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28), the first agreement on reducing and phasing out fossil fuels was adopted, the climate change compensation fund was officially launched, and rich countries pledged to increase financial support for poorer countries. These commitments are expected to turn into action in 2024, bringing the SDG implementation roadmap back on track.
Identity of “Vietnamese Bamboo Diplomacy”
The year 2023 marked highlights of the “Vietnamese Bamboo Diplomacy” with strong roots, stout trunks, and flexible branches, thereby enhancing the country’s international position and reputation.
The milestone of half a century of diplomatic relations with a series of countries marks Vietnam’s cooperation achievements, which is also the foundation to open a more substantive and effective journey of cooperation. Notably, the relationships of solidarity, friendship and comprehensive cooperation between Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia continued to develop deeply and sustainably.
Vietnam and China also marked a new phase of their partnership, with a declaration to elevate the comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership between the two sides and build a Vietnam-China Community with a shared future that carries strategic significance. Vietnam and the US also established a comprehensive strategic partnership for peace, cooperation and sustainable development. In addition, Vietnam and Japan upgraded their bilateral relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership for peace and prosperity in Asia and the world.
In addition to the great achievements of bilateral and multilateral diplomacy, Vietnam also proactively and actively participated in and contributed to addressing international issues and global challenges. Vietnam has promoted its role in many important multilateral organisations and forums such as the United Nations, ASEAN, APEC, United Nations General Assembly, the UN Human Rights Council, UNESCO General Assembly, UNESCO World Heritage Committee and UN Peacekeeping.
On the journey to implement the SDGs, Vietnam continues to emphasise commitment and action on the transformation and development of a green economy, circular economy, and clean energy. The country affirms the goal of sustainable development, with people being the driving force for development and ensures a favourable investment and business environment, according to the spirit of “harmonious benefits, shared risks”. In 2023, Vietnam also sent forces to Turkey to rescue and support earthquake victims, demonstrating the spirit of humanity and responsibility to the international community.
With strong goals, commitments and actions, Vietnam enters the new year 2024 with effort and belief in success, continuing to spread the image of an independent, self-reliant, and dynamically developing Vietnam, which is also a sincere friend, reliable partner and active and responsible member of the international community.
