On March 4, the prime minister issued Official Telegram No. 21/CD-TTg, outlining measures to balance rice supply and demand in response to global and domestic market developments. The directive aims to ensure sustainable rice production, trade, and export activities; improve efficiency; increase farmers’ income; and seize export opportunities while ensuring fair benefits for both producers and businesses.
Surging supply, declining demand
Nguyen Van Minh from Binh Xuan Commune, Go Cong City (Tien Giang Province) recently harvested 0.6 hectares of OM 380 rice with a yield of nearly 6 tonnes of fresh rice. However, he sold it at 5,100 VND per kilogramme, which is 2,000 VND per kilogramme lower than the previous season. “At the beginning of the season, traders placed deposits, promising 6,800 VND per kilogramme. But during the harvest time, they dropped the price to 5,100 VND per kilogramme. If we refused to sell, their deposit would be forfeit, leaving us with no choice but to accept the lower price,” Minh shared while looking at his recently harvested field.
According to Tien Giang Provincial Department of Agriculture and Environment, the 2024-2025 winter-spring crop saw the province planting over 42,200 hectares of rice. So far, around 30,000 hectares have been harvested, yielding 6.7 tonnes per hectare (dry rice) and a total output of nearly 200,000 tonnes.
This trend has not been limited to Tien Giang, farmers across the Mekong Delta are in the final stage of the winter-spring rice harvest, with falling rice prices causing widespread concern.
Huynh Van Danh, Director of Vinh Hien Co., Ltd., noted that rice prices have been declining since before the 2025 Lunar New Year due to falling export prices and weak demand. This has severely impacted rice milling and processing businesses, particularly those that bought rice at high prices earlier, only to face steep losses when prices plummeted.
According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), global rice production in 2025 is expected to hit a record high of 532.7 million tonnes. The total global rice supply is projected to reach 712.15 million tonnes, an increase of 9.2 million tonnes from 2024. However, global rice trade in 2025 is expected to decline to 58.5 million tonnes, while ending stocks are forecast to rise to 181.6 million tonnes, exceeding 2024 levels. With abundant supply and sluggish demand, rice-exporting countries, including Vietnam, are facing mounting pressure to adjust strategies and ensure stability in the domestic rice market.
According to information from the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), Indonesia's domestic rice production is expected to reach 35 million tonnes in 2025, and the country may not need to import rice this year. These factors have led to a global decline in rice prices in the first two months of 2025. Specifically, Thai rice prices have dropped by 10-11%, while Vietnamese rice prices have decreased by 6%.
Closely monitoring and updating market fluctuations in a timely manner
In response to recent developments in the rice export market, the prime minister, through Directive No. 21/CD-TTg, has instructed the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment to work with relevant ministries, sectors, and local authorities to closely monitor global rice market trends, especially the tracking policy adjustments in major rice-exporting countries such as India and Thailand, as well as identifying import demand in markets with high potential, such as the US, Japan, and Africa. The goal is to provide updated information to localities and enterprises, thus enabling them to adjust their production and export plans accordingly.
Additionally, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has been tasked with reviewing, assessing, and proposing comprehensive amendments to Decree No.107/2018/ND-CP and Decree No.01/2025/ND-CP by the second quarter of 2025. This review includes considering additional criteria and conditions for businesses engaged in rice trade, export, and import. The focus is on prioritising and incentivising enterprises that have integrated production and distribution chains as well as modern and synchronised storage and logistics systems, aiming to prevent price manipulation by traders that negatively impacts farmers.
Proposals have also been made to develop evaluation criteria for assessing the credibility of rice exporters and importers, with the aim of streamlining operations and ensuring greater transparency.
According to Ngo Hong Phong, Director of the Department of Quality, Processing, and Market Development, the agricultural sector will continue to improve the structure and quality of rice production. This involves reducing the cultivation of low-yield rice varieties and shifting towards high-quality strains such as Jasmine, ST24, ST25, and other specialty rice types. Moreover, efforts will be made to enhance deep processing and diversify rice-based products, including rice flour, noodles, and dried pho. The sector also aims to build and promote environmentally friendly rice brands to meet evolving consumer preferences in various markets.
Regarding rice consumption and export, collaboration among relevant ministries and sectors is essential to enhance trade promotion efforts. This will facilitate increased exports to key markets, especially by expanding into new and high-potential regions such as the US, the EU, Japan, China, the Middle East, and Africa.
Furthermore, financial support for rice procurement and export remains a critical issue. The prime minister has directed the Ministry of Finance to facilitate early tax refunds for rice export businesses. Meanwhile, the State Bank of Vietnam has been instructed to explore options for expanding credit limits and loan durations for businesses with sufficient capacity and storage infrastructure to stockpile rice during periods of market volatility and low purchasing prices.
According to the Vietnam Food Association, improved access to financial resources and extended loan durations will enable enterprises to hold onto their stock and strategically choose the best timing for sales at optimal prices. This will prevent panic selling at loss-making prices due to urgent debt repayments, which could otherwise lead to negative impacts on the domestic rice market and severely affect farmers' incomes.
