The consequences of Typhoon Yagi
The total economic losses to Hai Phong caused by Typhoon No. 3 (Yagi) were estimated to reach nearly 12.3 trillion VND, demonstrating how severe the storm affected the economic development of one of the country's economic locomotives.
The total damage to Dung Huong Co., Ltd. (Hai Phong City) was estimated at about 50 billion VND as one of the businesses that suffered severe losses due to the storm. Director Dao Van Dung shared in sadness that his family almost lost all the assets they had accumulated over a lifetime after just one storm. The company's production and business activities were completely disrupted due to damaged facilities and an interrupted supply of raw materials.
GDP growth of 7.40% was recorded in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the same period last year, the agro-forestry-fishery sector increased by only 2.58%, contributing 4.08% to the total value added of the entire economy. According to the Director of General Statistics Office (GSO) Nguyen Thi Huong, this growth rate was slightly higher than in 2021.
Director Nguyen Thi Huong reiterated that the agro-forestry-fishery sector grew only by 2.52% due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the third quarter of 2021, which disrupted production and consumption in this sector, along with climate change, rising input costs, and African swine fever.
According to the General Statistics Office (GSO), the agro-forestry-fishery sector contributed 5.3% to GDP growth, with a 3.2% increase in value, in the first nine months of 2024. Director Huong also noted that the added value of the agro-forestry-fishery sector increased by 3.2% in the past nine months, just higher than the growth rate of the same period in 2020. The data statistics demonstrated the substantial impact of Typhoon Yagi on this sector's recovery.
S&P Global Rating report recently showed that the Vietnam Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in manufacturing in September dropped sharply to 47.3 from 52.4 in the previous month.
Positive growth prospects and forecast
From another perspective, the representative from the GSO noted that the infrastructure damages were only counted in the change of assets of the economy, not in the production activities during the period, so the damage to production activities was also insignificant. On the other hand, manufacturing enterprises proactively restored production and business immediately after the storm to keep up with the progress of orders, so the processing and manufacturing industry still had impressive growth, offsetting the damage to agriculture.
At a recent press conference on socio-economic statistics for the third quarter and the first three quarters of 2024, Director Nguyen Thi Huong assessed that the possibility of reaching the year-end economic growth target of 6.5-7% is feasible. To achieve a 6.5% growth, the fourth quarter growth will need to increase by 5.7%; for the target of 6.8%, the fourth quarter must increase by 6.76%; and the growth rate in the fourth quarter needs to rise by 7.5% to reach the target of 7%. With the growth results of the third quarter and the first nine months, the economic growth for 2024 is projected to achieve the upper range of the growth scenario.
Director Huong also emphasised that synchronously and effectively implementing measures to stabilise the macroeconomy, such as harmonising monetary and fiscal policies, controlling inflation, stabilising exchange rates, and maintaining a favourable business environment and political stability, are essential for economic growth in the remaining months of 2024.
Many international financial institutions have offered optimistic assessments of Vietnam’s economic outlook for 2024 despite the impacts of Typhoon Yagi. For instance, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its forecast for Vietnam's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 2024 to 6.1%. Recognising that exports and tourism are two sectors that contribute significantly to economic growth during the recovery period, the IMF expects Vietnam's economic growth to exceed the previous forecast of nearly 6%, launched in June 2024.
Many economic experts share the view that implementing long-term and strategic solutions and improving the country's internal strength is vital to helping Vietnam overcome challenges and firmly step on the path of development. Therefore, the Government, businesses and people should work closely to realise socio-economic development goals and ensure stable development.
The growth target of 6.8% - 7% in 2024 is a big challenge. All sectors and agencies at all levels need to strengthen forecasting capabilities, adopt flexible and proactive management, promptly respond to all arising situations, firmly and effectively implement growth targets associated with macroeconomic stability, actively promote economic growth, control inflation, provide maximum support to the business sector, and ensure social security and the well-being of people.
