Despite a sharp increase in the trade deficit in the first nine months of 2026, trade developments in the final months of the year, together with the target of raising exports by 15-16%, provide grounds for optimism that the trade balance will continue to improve, Deputy Director of the Agency for Foreign Trade under the Ministry of Industry and Trade Trinh Thi Thu Hien said at a ministry press conference on October 7.

Trade between Viet Nam and Malaysia reached 15.28 billion USD in the first eight months of 2026, up 43.4% year-on-year, nearly matching the 16.33 billion USD recorded in the whole of 2025, according to the Viet Nam Trade Office in Malaysia.

Viet Nam’s total import-export turnover in June reached 104.22 billion USD, up 5.2% month-on-month and 36.3% year-on-year, according to a socio-economic report for the second quarter and first half of 2026 released on July 3 by the National Statistics Office (NSO) under the Ministry of Finance.

Amid rapidly shifting global trade conditions, import growth outpacing exports — and consequently pushing the trade balance into deficit — should not necessarily be viewed as a negative signal. This is because much of the increase in imports consists of machinery, equipment, and production materials for manufacturing and investment, indicating that businesses are expanding production capacity in preparation for future orders.

Viet Nam recorded a trade deficit of 7.11 billion USD in the first four months of 2026, according to the National Statistics Office under the Ministry of Finance.

The National Assembly (NA) Standing Committee has urged the Government to remain vigilant against mounting macroeconomic risks, including inflationary pressures, volatile energy prices, a potential shift toward a trade deficit, slow public investment disbursement, and uncertainties in financial, monetary and gold markets, while calling for updated policy scenarios to safeguard growth and stability.