State budget revenue estimate for 2027 rises by 9.1%

State budget revenue in 2027 estimated at approximately 3,334.3 trillion VND

Based on an assessment of state budget implementation in 2026 and the socio-economic development plan for 2027, the 2027 State Budget estimate has been formulated as follows:

State budget revenue is estimated at approximately 3,334.3 trillion VND, up around 9.1% compared with the estimated outturn for 2026, with State Budget revenue mobilisation equivalent to approximately 20.2% of GDP. Specifically, domestic revenue is projected at 2,949.5 trillion VND, up 10% compared with the estimated outturn for 2026, accounting for 88.5% of total State Budget revenue. Crude oil revenue is projected at 52 trillion VND, equivalent to 83.5% of the estimated outturn for 2026, based on an expected price of approximately 75 USD per barrel and a planned output of 8.5 million tonnes. Revenue from import and export activities is projected at 531 trillion VND, up 6% compared with the estimated outturn for 2026.

Regarding value-added tax refunds, the Ministry of Finance estimates an amount of approximately 207.2 trillion VND, up around 5.1% compared with the estimated outturn for 2026. Grants are estimated at approximately 9 trillion VND, an increase of 0.5 trillion VND compared with the estimated outturn for 2026.

Regarding the State Budget deficit, under Conclusion No. 18-KL/TW of the Party Central Committee, National Assembly Resolution No. 26/2026/QH16 sets a target for the average State Budget deficit during the 2026–2030 period of approximately 5% of GDP, with the annual deficit to be determined according to requirements and the disbursement progress of development investment tasks.

On this basis, the Ministry of Finance has set the 2027 State Budget deficit at a reasonable level, consistent with the capacity to disburse and absorb capital, while preserving fiscal space for subsequent years. The deficit is projected at approximately 740 trillion VND, an increase of 134.2 trillion VND compared with the 2026 estimate, equivalent to 4.5% of GDP (the 2026 estimate is 4.2% of GDP). Of this amount, the central State Budget deficit is approximately 588.8 trillion VND, while the local budget deficit is approximately 150.8 trillion VND.

By the end of 2027, public debt is forecast to stand at approximately 34–35% of GDP, Government debt at around 33–34% of GDP, and national external debt at around 30–31% of GDP, ensuring that public debt safety indicators remain within the ceilings and warning thresholds stipulated in Resolution No. 26/2026/QH16. The Government will focus on controlling debt safety indicators and managing risks; proactively and flexibly mobilising capital while maintaining macroeconomic stability; meeting all debt repayment obligations in full and on time; improving the efficiency of borrowed capital utilisation in line with project progress; and continuing to improve the country’s credit rating, with the aim of achieving investment-grade status by 2030. Borrowing and capital mobilisation for the 2027 State Budget will be aligned with the progress and disbursement capacity of public investment capital.

Increased spending on development investment

Regarding the 2027 State Budget expenditure estimate, the Ministry of Finance projects total State Budget expenditure at approximately 4,074.3 trillion VND, an increase of 915.2 trillion VND compared with the 2026 estimate. Of this, approximately 1,756 trillion VND is expected to be allocated to development investment, accounting for 43% of total State Budget expenditure (compared with 35.5% in the 2026 estimate), while recurrent expenditure (including spending on salary reform) is set at 2,061.3 trillion VND, equivalent to 50.6% of total State Budget expenditure (compared with 57.3% in the 2026 estimate). Specifically:

Central budget expenditure is estimated at approximately 1,955.7 trillion VND, an increase of 438.6 trillion VND compared with the 2026 estimate. Of this, development investment expenditure is approximately 757.2 trillion VND, up 287.2 trillion VND compared with the 2026 estimate. In particular, 690 trillion VND will be allocated to public investment expenditure, an increase of 260 trillion VND compared with the 2026 estimate. Resources will be concentrated on implementing nationally important works, projects and tasks, as well as projects promoting economic growth under the 2026–2030 medium-term public investment plan.

A further 67.2 trillion VND will be allocated to other development investment expenditure, an increase of approximately 27.2 trillion VND compared with the 2026 estimate. This amount is expected to fund investment support tasks, compensate for price differences under the offtake arrangement for the Nghi Son Refinery and Petrochemical Plant project, and provide additional charter capital for a number of enterprises and banks, among other purposes.

Interest payment expenditure is allocated 126.8 trillion VND, an increase of 9.4 trillion VND; while grant expenditure is set at 5.25 trillion VND, a decrease of 1.05 trillion VND.

Notably, recurrent expenditure (including spending on salary reform) is estimated at approximately 980.9 trillion VND, an increase of 120.5 trillion VND compared with the 2026 estimate.

Other recurrent expenditure tasks will prioritise funding for the implementation of Party resolutions and conclusions; ensuring national defence and security; carrying out important political tasks; organising APEC 2027; and implementing policies, entitlements and tasks under the 500-Day Campaign for the Search, Recovery and Identification of Martyrs’ Remains, as well as activities marking the 80th anniversary of War Invalids and Martyrs Day (July 27). Funding will also be prioritised for social welfare policies and previously promulgated entitlements and policies, such as ensuring the recurrent expenditure allocation norms for 2027, healthcare and education policies, pension payments, and support policies for vulnerable groups, as well as important tasks for the development of various sectors and fields.

The Ministry of Finance said that 80.4 trillion VND would be allocated to salary reform expenditure to implement salary and income policies for the public sector and supplement accumulated resources for salary reform, thereby ensuring the sustainable capacity of the budget to meet these payments in subsequent years. Approximately 30 trillion VND will be set aside as a contingency reserve to safeguard national financial security and safety, enabling the Government to respond proactively should socio-economic conditions fluctuate or State Budget revenue fall short of the estimate, in line with the policies of the Party Central Committee and the National Assembly.

Regarding local budget expenditure, the estimate stands at approximately 2,118.6 trillion VND, an increase of 476.6 trillion VND compared with the 2026 estimate.

Under the 2027 State Budget estimate, savings will be made immediately at the budget allocation stage at the beginning of the year, including 5% of public investment expenditure to supplement funding for key and urgent projects, and 10% of recurrent expenditure (in addition to savings set aside to fund salary reform) to supplement resources for social welfare spending.