Taking advantage of the opportunity to facilitate national socio-economic development is one of the top population priorities for the country in the context of a rapidly aging population, reported at a seminar co-organised by the Party Central Committee's Commission for Communication and Education and the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) in Hanoi on October 16.
The seminar aims to synthesise and analyse the latest findings on population, and propose recommendations for population policy in Vietnam. It is expected to present a comprehensive picture of population issues facing the country based on analysis of birth rate reduction and unmet needs for reproductive healthcare.
In 2012, the number of people in the productive age group (between 15-64) accounted for 69% of Vietnam’s population, a condition defined by demographers as the golden age. However, they warn that the golden age will end soon without effective measures to deal with a rapidly aging population.
According to statistics released at the conference, Vietnam’s average age has risen rapidly due to a rising life expectancy and a declining birth rate.
Vietnam’s fertility rate has fallen continuously for decades reaching a total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.03 children per woman in 2009, well below the replacement rate of 2.33 children per woman.
Women tend to marry later now and have fewer children. In addition, the average life expectancy is now 72.8 and is expected to increase to 80.4 by 2050, while population growth has slowed from 3.5% in 1960 to 1.06% in 2012.
Experts at the conference raised concerns that the constant increase of life expectancy along with the rapid decline in the fertility rate in the past two decades has made the age dependency ratio increase rapidly.
Some suggested that once the TFR dips to a low level, it is difficult to return to the replacement rate. Some countries that experienced similar trends over 20-30 years ago – like the Republic of Korea, Singapore and Thailand – have faced significant challenges in handling the population’s aging issue at the same time as increases in labour shortages due to a smaller population of working age.
For that reason, making use of the golden population period to promote strong socio-economic growth should be given special attention, delegates suggested, focusing on creating decent jobs for workers with higher labour productivity. They also recommended that the implementation of the National Strategy for Population and Reproductive Health needs to be considered from a demographic viewpoint, while promoting further study on factors resulting in low fertility rates in some regions of Vietnam to develop appropriate policies.
By 2020, it is necessary to develop a comprehensive framework to address issues related to fertility decline, demographic structure changes and population aging, as well as those related to social insurance and retirement.
