Commenting on the recent upward trend in home loan interest rates at many banks, Tran Quang Trung, Business Development Director at OneHousing, said this was a familiar cyclical development in the financial market. According to him, towards the end of the year and the start of a new year, credit institutions often step up capital mobilisation in order to prepare resources for the economy’s growth cycle in the following year.
This year, however, the picture is being shaped by several unusual factors. A series of large-scale infrastructure projects are under way, ranging from transport works to projects serving the country’s broader development strategy. Many firms have been tasked with projects worth tens of trillions, and in some cases hundreds of trillions, of VND. This is driving up demand for funding from commercial banks. As financing needs surge within a short period, upward pressure on interest rates is difficult to avoid.
“In the first quarter, and possibly extending into the second quarter of 2026, interest rates are likely to remain high. However, this is only short-term pressure,” Trung said.
The government is introducing a range of solutions to expand capital sources for the economy, from encouraging the mobilisation of resources held by the public and bringing gold into circulation, to building an international financial centre in Ho Chi Minh City to attract foreign capital flows. These measures are expected to help balance capital sources within the financial system.
Even so, rising interest rates are still creating certain pressures for some property investors, especially those using high financial leverage.
According to Trung, investors without reserve capital will come under greater pressure as floating rates rise. In a context of slowing market liquidity, some short-term investors are being forced to adjust their strategies, or even accept selling assets at profits lower than expected.
By contrast, investors with stronger accumulated capital or diversified asset portfolios such as gold, bonds or bank deposits are in a more flexible position to restructure loans and ease financial pressure. This shows that the market is entering a phase of stronger screening, in which investors need a long-term strategy and sound financial management rather than excessive reliance on leverage.
From a longer-term perspective, Trung said current interest rates are still not excessively high when compared with the history of Viet Nam’s property market. “Since 2008, Viet Nam’s property market has gone through multiple growth phases in an interest-rate environment of 13%, 14%, and at times even as high as 18%. It was only in the 2023-2024 period that such a low interest-rate environment emerged,” he said.
According to him, a floating rate of around 10% is still considered acceptable for the market. It is only when interest rates rise above 12% that stronger pressure begins to weigh on property investment activity. In addition, many projects currently offer interest-rate support in the early years, helping buyers reduce financial pressure at the initial stage of their loans.
Although high interest rates may have some impact on buyer sentiment and overall market liquidity, Trung said that housing demand remains, in essence, an essential and long-term need. In his view, waiting for a so-called “perfect moment” in the market is not always the best strategy for homebuyers.
He said that besides housing demand, Vietnamese people also have a need to accumulate assets and pass them on to future generations. In the context of rapid urbanisation, property remains an asset with enduring value over time. “When buyers find a product that matches both their needs and financial capacity, that is already a good time to make a decision,” he said.
Particularly during periods of market adjustment, owner-occupiers may have more opportunities to access good properties at more reasonable prices than during times of market overheating. Looking ahead, Trung said that if there are no major external shocks, interest rates may begin to stabilise from mid-2026. “Once we move past around June 2026, factors relating to capital sources and macroeconomic management may bring greater stability to interest rates. At that point, the cost of capital will become easier to bear than it is now,” he forecast.
In the long term, alongside urban restructuring, infrastructure development and rising incomes, property will continue to play an important role in the asset portfolios of both investors and homebuyers.
