>>> National pride as Vietnam advance in World Cup qualifiers
>>> Vietnam set new points record for Southeast Asia at World Cup qualifiers
>>> Vietnam make history with first-ever slot in final round of World Cup qualifiers
Vietnam made history as they sailed through to the final qualifying round of the World Cup for the first time ever, after narrowly losing 3-2 to hosts UAE in their final Group G clash of the second round of the 2022 FIFA World Cup Asian qualifiers on June 15.
Coach Park Hang-seo’s side are among the 12 teams to have made it through to the third qualifying round of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Asia.
We Global Football ran a simulation of the events that could happen by their own method, simulating 2,500 possibilities, among these there were 111 cases in which Vietnam could win a place in the 2022 World Cup, a rate of 4.44%.
We Global ranks teams like the FIFA rankings, but according to their own formula. The Monte Carlo method in We Global's simulation is to repeat a large number of random results from the second qualifying round. As the number of repetitions increases, the results become more accurate.
Among the 12 teams, Vietnam's chances are just higher than China’s at 3.68% and Lebanon’s at 1.88%. The possibilities of the remaining nine teams are: Japan 83.92%, Iran 82.00%, the Republic of Korea 79.92%, Australia 61.40%, Iraq 32.24%, Saudi Arabia 31.48%, Oman 8.24%, UAE 5.96%, and Syria 4.84%.
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We Global Football ranks statistics based on the rankings of the teams they evaluate, not following the FIFA rankings. Therefore, Vietnam are below China on the FIFA World Ranking but the simulation still shows that Park Hang-seo’s side have a higher probability of qualifying for the next year’s World Cup than China.
The firm said that they would issue more accurate probabilities after the draw for the third qualifying round held on June 24.
12 teams progressing to the third round will be divided into two groups of six teams. The first two teams in each group will qualify for the World Cup. The two third-placed teams proceed to the fourth round to determine which team advances to the inter-confederation play-offs.
This is the first time Vietnam have entered the third and final qualifying round of the World Cup. The Southeast Asian team are in the last seeding group along with Lebanon. No Southeast Asian team has yet won a match in this qualifying round.
