This process stems not only from internal market factors but is also directly influenced by macroeconomic variables such as interest rates, exchange rates, inflationary pressures, and global geopolitical uncertainties. However, it is precisely through this consolidation that the market structure is gradually being reshaped towards higher quality, greater safety, and enhanced sustainability.
Six key trends shaping the market ahead
In this context, the market is expected to undergo restructuring along six major trends.
First, the restructuring of supply will move towards greater concentration and higher standards, prioritising green, sustainable, and high-quality projects.
Second, the spatial restructuring of development will follow infrastructure expansion, with a shift towards integrated and multi-functional urban areas.
Third, capital channels will be restructured as cheap liquidity becomes less available, compelling market participants to adopt safer and more sustainable financial structures.
Fourth, buyer behaviour will shift towards prioritising real use value and long-term returns rather than short-term price appreciation.
Fifth, demand will be restructured, with genuine housing needs and long-term investment continuing to serve as the foundation for market stability.
Sixth, the market’s operational mechanisms will be restructured towards deeper segmentation, while gradually aligning with sustainable development standards.
Although the current consolidation process is creating short-term pressures, it is a necessary condition for the market to operate in a more transparent, professional, and sustainable manner in the long term.
In the near future, the market is expected to continue facing the impact of macroeconomic factors and financial pressures. However, within this context, clearer opportunities will emerge for those with strong capabilities, well-defined strategies, and a high capacity for adaptation.
In the long run, the prospects for sustainable development of the real estate market remain well-founded, as the economy continues to be steered towards positive growth, and infrastructure systems are steadily expanded and upgraded, providing a solid foundation for future development.
Foundation for the market to enter new cycle
Notably, following the success of the 14th National Party Congress and the post-Congress governance approach of the political system, together with the proactive engagement of the business community, the real estate market is expected to build on past achievements and stand ready to enter a new phase of efficient, stable, and sustainable development.
One notable aspect is the evolving trend in supply. Although there have been slight quarterly adjustments, supply continues to expand over the medium to long term. The market’s development space is no longer confined to core urban areas but is rapidly extending to satellite regions, supported by synchronised investment in connectivity infrastructure and urban planning and consolidation. This not only helps unlock new land reserves but also diversifies products, better meeting increasingly segmented market demand.
On the demand side, the market is witnessing a clear shift in buyer behaviour and sentiment. Despite significant pressure from higher capital costs and slower liquidity, genuine demand has not declined but has instead become more selective. While the “fear of missing out” (FOMO) once strongly influenced investment decisions, buyers are now increasingly driven by a “fear of making the wrong choice”, prioritising factors such as legal transparency, income-generating potential, and sustainable value appreciation.
This shift is also reflected in market liquidity. Well-planned projects - particularly integrated urban developments with complete infrastructure and amenities, sound legal frameworks, and reasonable pricing - continue to record positive absorption rates and stand out as bright spots. In contrast, products lacking infrastructure connectivity and amenities, most notably land plots in various areas, remain subdued, indicating a highly selective liquidity environment.
According to experts, the market structure is also becoming clearly divided into two groups. On one side are leading enterprises with strong financial capacity, well-structured development strategies, and the ability to adapt quickly to fluctuations. On the other are smaller firms and individual developers, who are compelled to restructure in order to survive and adapt. In this context, capital flows act as a “natural filter”, eliminating weaker players and driving the market towards greater efficiency.
Notably, the social housing segment continues to emerge as a key bright spot. Beyond diversifying supply, it plays a crucial role in filling the gap left by commercial housing, particularly as demand for owner-occupied housing continues to rise.
However, from a cautious perspective, the market still faces considerable challenges related to capital flows from the corporate bond market. Nevertheless, this also serves as a catalyst for businesses to restructure their investment portfolios, strengthen risk management, and enhance transparency. At the same time, credit flows are being regulated in a more selective manner.
I believe that investors must proactively adapt to policies, focus on products with real value, and tightly control financial leverage. Brokers need to raise professional ethical standards, ensure transparency, and contribute to market stability. Meanwhile, investors and buyers should shift their mindset, prioritising medium- to long-term strategies.
Speaking to Nhan Dan Newspaper, Dr Nguyen Van Dinh, Vice Chairman of the Viet Nam Real Estate Association and Chairman of the Viet Nam Association of Realtors, emphasised that these realities give rise to recommendations that are not only directional but also urgent requirements for market participants.
“I believe that investors must proactively adapt to policies, focus on products with real value, and tightly control financial leverage. Brokers need to raise professional ethical standards, ensure transparency, and contribute to market stability. Meanwhile, investors and buyers should shift their mindset, prioritising medium- to long-term strategies,” Dr Dinh stated.
According to Dr Dinh, opportunities always exist within challenges. Although the current restructuring phase brings considerable pressure, it also provides a foundation for Viet Nam’s real estate market to enter a new development cycle that is more transparent, more professional, and more sustainable.
In the long term, with a stable macroeconomic foundation, sustained growth, continued expansion of infrastructure, strong determination from the political system, and proactive participation from the business community, the prospects for sustainable development in the real estate market are well grounded. This is not merely a matter of confidence, but an inevitable trend in the market’s development trajectory.
Interest rate cuts as “lever” to unlock 2026 real estate market
According to Dr Tran Xuan Luong, Deputy Director of the Viet Nam Institute for Real Estate Market Research and Evaluation, interest rate cuts are being seen as a key catalyst to revive aggregate demand, unlock capital flows, and open up a new growth cycle for the real estate market.
Analysing the recent moves by banks to lower interest rates, Dr Luong noted that such actions are not merely technical measures, but rather a strategic “lever” aimed at restoring aggregate demand and reinforcing the foundations for growth.
From the perspective of aggregate demand—comprising consumption, investment, government spending, and net exports—all four pillars are currently facing certain pressures.
Sharing his insights, Dr Luong pointed out that the investment landscape shows clear divergence. Domestic investment remains cautious, while foreign capital inflows are increasing significantly. Viet Nam continues to maintain its position as an attractive destination for international investors, thanks to its stable political environment, competitive costs, and deep integration into global supply chains. Amid fluctuations in major economies, capital from regions such as the Middle East and Asia is increasingly seeking safer markets, with Viet Nam emerging as a strategic choice.
Dr Tran Xuan Luong emphasised that public spending continues to serve as a “driving force”, as the Government accelerates disbursement for infrastructure projects, including transport, urban development, and key economic zones. This not only stimulates short-term growth but also lays a long-term foundation for economic development. Meanwhile, although exports face trade barriers, they still hold expansion potential as Viet Nam leverages advantages from free trade agreements and the ongoing restructuring of global supply chains.
“In that overall context, interest rate cuts can be viewed as a form of ‘lubrication’ for capital flows, helping economic components operate more smoothly. Without timely adjustments, the risk of weakening aggregate demand is entirely possible, which could lead to stagnation across the broader economy,” Dr Luong affirmed.
In that overall context, interest rate cuts can be viewed as a form of ‘lubrication’ for capital flows, helping economic components operate more smoothly. Without timely adjustments, the risk of weakening aggregate demand is entirely possible, which could lead to stagnation across the broader econom.
Real estate rides policy tailwinds, avoiding repeat of market freeze cycles
In practice, high interest rates have always been an “invisible barrier” to the real estate market. When borrowing costs are pushed up to 14–15%, or even higher, both developers and homebuyers are forced to delay investment decisions. The lessons from the 2011–2013 period remain highly relevant, when soaring interest rates led to a prolonged market freeze.
Therefore, in the new cycle, maintaining interest rates at a reasonable level not only helps ease financial pressure but also plays a crucial role in restoring confidence. Market sentiment—an intrinsic feature of Viet Nam’s property sector—tends to respond quickly to policy signals. When the cost of capital declines and profit expectations improve, capital flows are likely to return to the market swiftly.
Notably, Viet Nam’s real estate market is no longer solely dependent on domestic investors. The growing participation of foreign investors is ushering in a new phase of development. With a long-term perspective, international investors are not only concerned with short-term returns but also place high value on the sustainable growth potential of Viet Nam’s economy.
Looking ahead to 2026, a number of positive signals are gradually converging. From flexible monetary policies and increasing international capital inflows to the recovery of domestic economic drivers, these factors are collectively forming a solid foundation for the real estate market. If these opportunities are effectively leveraged, Viet Nam could enter a new growth cycle that is more sustainable, transparent, and full of potential.
Speaking to Nhan Dan Newspaper, Chief Executive Officer of SGO Homes Le Dinh Chung emphasised that following the simultaneous reduction of deposit interest rates by 26 banks, the real estate market has begun to show relatively positive signs. Market participants, including developers, investors, and buyers, are all placing high expectations on this development.
It can be seen that the decision by 26 banks to cut interest rates reflects the Government’s flexible policy management, in line with current conditions. Without such measures, and if interest rates were to rise to 18–20% as in the past, it would be extremely difficult for the market to overcome its challenges. Under current conditions, however, there remains room for adjustment.
However, according to Chung, this is only an initial step and has not yet created a breakthrough for the market. In reality, the move has helped improve market sentiment and liquidity. For developers, high borrowing and capital costs have been a major constraint; therefore, lower interest rates provide an opportunity to adjust selling prices more appropriately, thereby supporting overall market liquidity.
