The National Interest recently published an article suggesting that another serious crisis appears to be brewing in the Middle East — this time between Israel and Türkiye. The Israeli airstrike on Syria’s Abu al-Duhur airbase in August 2026 could be seen as a turning point that shifted Israel–Türkiye relations toward a distinctly military trajectory.
During a visit to Syria this week, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan issued a stern statement, identifying Israel as the greatest potential threat to Syria’s stability.
Observers had previously noted that the relationship between Israel and Türkiye — which has seen many ups and downs — was poised for a period of overt competition for influence in Syria following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's administration in late 2024.
Türkiye has emerged as an influential power in Syria, pledging to support the new administration in reconstruction efforts, including the development of security forces. This has helped Türkiye expand its influence across the region. Israel, meanwhile, prioritises preventing any force that could pose a security threat to its northern region bordering Syria — a stance that has driven its recent military and security operations within Syrian territory.
With its vital geostrategic location at the crossroads of Asia, Europe, and Africa, Syria has long been a focal point of geopolitical rivalry among various parties. A clear example of this intense competition occurred in August 2026, when the Abu al-Duhur airbase in Syria was targeted by Israeli airstrikes amid concerns that Türkiye was preparing to deploy troops there. Türkiye subsequently denied having a military presence at the airbase. For its part, the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office stated clearly that Israel would show zero tolerance for security threats.
Following the incident, the US Special Envoy for Syria Thomas Barrack warned that Israeli airstrikes in Syria could prompt Türkiye to expand its military presence. Twelve Arab and Muslim nations issued a joint statement condemning the airstrikes, emphasising that such military actions risk escalating regional instability.
These tense developments in the Middle East also highlight the difficult position facing the US as the rivalry between Israel and Türkiye — both Washington’s allies — becomes increasingly apparent. According to an article in The National Interest, Washington is attempting to establish a trilateral de-confliction mechanism involving Israel, Türkiye, and Syria, though no concrete results have been achieved so far. The risk of confrontation between Ankara and Tel Aviv remains ever-present due to their divergent approaches.
International observers suggest that if Israel continues to view Türkiye’s expanding role in Syria as a security threat, while Türkiye increasingly perceives Israel's military actions as an attempt to impose a regional order, the relationship between the two could shift from competition to direct confrontation.
According to international observers, if Israel continues to view Türkiye's expanding role in Syria as a security threat, while Türkiye increasingly perceives Israel's military activities as an attempt to impose a regional order, the relationship between the two could shift from competition to direct confrontation.
As for Syria, the Middle Eastern nation's trajectory remains inextricably linked to the complex strategic calculations of various actors — including the US, Russia, Iran, Israel, and Türkiye. The risk of being drawn into the region’s cycle of conflict also impacts Syria’s security environment and its national reconstruction process.
Some experts argue that the likelihood of an open conflict between Türkiye and Israel is low, given their shared interest in maintaining stability in Syria. Nevertheless, tensions between the two sides act like smouldering embers, carrying the constant risk of flaring up into a full-blown military confrontation — thereby exacerbating the security situation in a Middle East already rife with conflict hotspots.
