Under Resolution No. 244/2025/QH15 on the 2026 socio-economic development plan, the National Assembly resolved that the overarching objective is to prioritise growth while maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation and ensuring major economic balances. Accordingly, it assigned a GDP growth target of at least 10%, alongside an average CPI increase of around 4.5%.
Three inflation scenarios forecast
Economists believe this will be a highly challenging task. Achieving high growth and low inflation amid a global economy expected to remain volatile and unpredictable will exert significant pressure on price management and inflation control. As such, price management in 2026 must ensure a “dual objective”: continuing to keep inflation in check while supporting production, business activity and people’s livelihoods in order to sustain economic recovery momentum.
Many forecasts suggest that, in principle, inflationary pressures in 2026 will be higher than in 2025, though major shocks are unlikely. Monthly CPI growth is projected at around 0.3%, with average inflation for the whole of 2026 estimated at approximately 3.5% (with a margin of plus or minus 0.5%).
Many forecasts suggest that, in principle, inflationary pressures in 2026 will be higher than in 2025, though major shocks are unlikely. Monthly CPI growth is projected at around 0.3%, with average inflation for the whole of 2026 estimated at approximately 3.5% (with a margin of plus or minus 0.5%).
Key factors increasing inflationary pressure include the lagged effects of 2025 credit growth, expanded investment and consumption to achieve higher growth targets, and exchange rate movements, which are expected to affect CPI due to rising demand for imported production inputs. Conversely, several factors may help ease inflationary pressure, such as the limited likelihood of sharp rises in global commodity prices given subdued global growth prospects, and ample domestic goods supply, reducing the risk of significant price volatility.
From an expert perspective, Associate Professor Dr Ngo Tri Long, former Director of the Market and Price Research Institute under the Ministry of Finance, outlined three inflation scenarios for 2026. In a favourable scenario, average CPI would rise by 3–3.4%; under the baseline scenario, by 3.5–4%; and in a high-risk scenario, by 4.3–4.8%. The main variables influencing inflation include electricity prices, credit growth, food prices and logistics/exchange rates.
External factors are expected to exert both upward and moderating pressures, while domestic factors pose multiple inflationary risks, requiring more sustainable and long-term control measures.
Average CPI in 2026 is forecast to increase by around 4–4.5%, higher than in 2025. This is attributed to rising cost pressures, as certain state-managed items such as wages and electricity prices continue to be adjusted according to schedule, along with demand-pull factors linked to money supply growth.
Dr Can Van Luc and the research team at the Institute of Economic Research of the Bank for Investment and Development of Viet Nam
According to Dr Can Van Luc and the research team at the Institute of Economic Research of the Bank for Investment and Development of Viet Nam, average CPI in 2026 is forecast to increase by around 4–4.5%, higher than in 2025. This is attributed to rising cost pressures, as certain state-managed items such as wages and electricity prices continue to be adjusted according to schedule, along with demand-pull factors linked to money supply growth. Nevertheless, inflation is generally expected to remain under control, supported by the global trend of easing prices and inflation, stable domestic supply of essential goods and services, and exchange rate and interest rate management.
Strengthening policy coordination
Controlling inflation amid mounting pressures requires close and effective coordination between monetary policy, fiscal policy and price management. In line with National Assembly and Government resolutions on socio-economic development planning, improving the business environment and enhancing national competitiveness, the State Bank of Viet Nam has issued Directive 01/CT-NHNN on implementing key banking sector tasks in 2026.
Under this directive, the State Bank will conduct monetary policy in a proactive and flexible manner, in close coordination with reasonably expansionary and targeted fiscal policy and other macroeconomic policies, with a firm priority on keeping average inflation in 2026 at around 4.5%, thereby maintaining macroeconomic stability and supporting sustainable growth.
Accordingly, the State Bank projects system-wide credit growth of approximately 15%, subject to adjustments in line with actual developments. It will also implement synchronised measures on foreign exchange management and foreign reserves management to stabilise the foreign currency market and support monetary policy operations. This direction underscores the importance of close coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to prioritise growth while maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation and ensuring major economic balances.
Dr Le Quoc Phuong, former Deputy Director of the Industrial and Trade Information Centre under the Ministry of Industry and Trade, noted that fiscal policy still has room to support growth, as the public debt-to-GDP ratio remains well below the ceiling permitted by the National Assembly. However, this room must be utilised effectively and with strict discipline, particularly in managing and deploying public investment capital, as state budget-funded investment continues to rise year on year. Timely disbursement of public investment, focused on key infrastructure projects, will generate positive spillover effects for socio-economic development. Conversely, slow and inefficient disbursement could drive up prices and undermine inflation control efforts.
The Price Management Department under the Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026 it will continue advising the Ministry to coordinate closely with relevant ministries and sectors in submitting proposals to the Prime Minister and the Steering Committee for Price Management, ensuring synchronised solutions to address challenges in price management and to meet the 2026 inflation target. Key tasks include closely monitoring international prices of strategic commodities, global economic and inflation trends to provide timely risk warnings, and strengthening analysis and forecasting of domestic essential goods prices in order to propose appropriate management measures.
At the same time, authorities will closely monitor pricing plans and roadmaps for essential state-managed goods and services such as healthcare and education, and update inflation scenarios to ensure annual control. The Price Management Department also aims to stabilise prices towards the year-end and during the Lunar New Year (Tet) period, enhance communication and transparency on pricing and price management, thereby contributing to achieving the inflation targets set by the National Assembly and the Government.
