Viet Nam targets new rice markets to navigate global trade shifts

According to the Viet Nam Food Association (VFA), China is emerging as a key driver of the Asian rice market due to strong import demand. China’s rice imports rebounded sharply in 2025, reaching about 3 million tonnes. Among its suppliers, Myanmar led with competitive prices, followed by Viet Nam with around 700,000 tonnes, up 2.5 times from 2024.

VFA Chairman Do Ha Nam noted that China was one of the “bright spots” in Viet Nam’s rice export outlook in 2025, especially as traditional import markets such as the Philippines and Indonesia saw severe declines.

He added that China remains a potential market for 2026, though it can easily switch suppliers based on price competitiveness, requiring exporters to be dynamic and flexible in tracking trade flows.

Viet Nam has also risen to become the seventh-largest rice supplier to Japan. In 2025, Viet Nam marked a milestone by successfully exporting the first tonnes of “low-emission green Vietnamese rice” to Japan, opening opportunities for deeper access to this high-quality market with world-leading standards.

Pham Thai Binh, Chairman of Trung An High-Tech Agriculture JSC, stated that in 2026 the company will continue boosting exports to Japan due to substantial demand, particularly for specialty and low-emission green rice.

While export volumes to Japan remain modest, fragrant rice offers significant price advantages and high added value. This reflects the broader trend in Viet Nam’s rice exports, focusing increasingly on quality over quantity.

According to VFA, Japan’s private sector rice imports in 2025 surged 95-fold from 2024 to 96,834 tonnes. Tight domestic supply and record-high prices forced food businesses, restaurants, and consumers to turn to imported rice. Forecasts suggest high domestic prices will sustain Japan’s import demand, creating opportunities for many exporters, including Viet Nam.

Regarding the Republic of Korea (RoK), the latest United States Department of Agriculture supply–demand balance shows the 2025/26 crop outlook generally stable. Milled rice production is projected at 3.54 million tonnes, with consumption forecast at 3.86 million tonnes, mainly driven by processed food sector demand. With favourable geography and advantages from regional and bilateral free trade agreements, Vietnamese rice has strong potential for deeper penetration.

In 2026, international rice tradevolume is forecast at 60.6 million tonnes, with global end-of-season stocks for 2025/26 at 217.7 million tonnes. According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation’s reports in early 2026, All Rice Price Index (FARPI) continued to rise slightly in February, mainly due to strong demand for fragrant varieties. However, prices remain lower than the same period in 2025 due to ample supply and subdued trading among major exporters.

Currently, Viet Nam’s 5% broken rice export price is low at 364 USD per tonne, compared with Thailand at 385 USD per tonne and Pakistan at 367 USD per tonne. With world rice prices unlikely to rise sharply in the short term, maintaining turnover requires expanding and restructuring consumer markets to diversify risks and tap higher-value segments.

Thus, alongside holding traditional markets, expanding presence in growth-potential destinations such as Japan, China, and the RoK has become a strategic imperative for Viet Nam’s rice industry. These are markets with strong purchasing power and diverse consumption structures, particularly for fragrant and high-value processed rice.