Experts believe that maintaining macroeconomic stability can no longer rely solely on traditional monetary tools, but will require deeper coordination between fiscal policy, structural reforms and efforts to strengthen the economy’s resilience.
According to data from the National Statistics Office under the Ministry of Finance, the consumer price index (CPI) in April rose by 0.84% compared with the previous month, increased by 5.46% year-on-year, and climbed by 3.31% compared with the end of 2025. The main drivers were higher domestic gas prices following global fuel price movements, alongside rising prices for dining services and construction materials due to escalating input and transportation costs.
Inflation risks exceeding the target
Although average CPI growth in the first four months of the year remained at 3.99%, still within the Government’s target range of 4.5–5%, monthly inflation data have shown significant upward price pressure resulting from higher energy prices and their spillover effects on transportation, production and input costs.
As a net energy importer, Viet Nam’s domestic petrol prices are expected to face considerable pressure whenever global oil prices surge.
In its report on assessment of April 2026 inflation and forecast for full-year 2026, KB Securities Viet Nam (KBSV) stated that, under its baseline scenario with a probability of around 70%, average Brent crude prices in 2026 are projected to fluctuate between 85 USD and 95 USD per barrel due to constrained oil supply. On that basis, KBSV forecasts Viet Nam’s average CPI in 2026 to rise by around 4.8%, exceeding the Government’s inflation target of 4.5%. However, the inflation level would still remain within an acceptable range and would not place excessive pressure on macroeconomic stability.
Nevertheless, under a negative scenario with a probability of approximately 30%, if average oil prices reach 100 USD per barrel in 2026, KBSV forecasts Viet Nam’s average inflation could increase to around 5.4%.
In its April macroeconomic outlook report, MB Securities (MBS) noted that CPI in 2026 would also come under pressure from several other factors. Electricity prices are forecast to remain elevated during the first half of the year following a price adjustment by Viet Nam Electricity (EVN) from May 2025. In addition, construction material prices are expected to trend upwards amid stronger demand from infrastructure and residential property projects, with steel prices alone projected to rise by around 7% year-on-year.
Traditional tools alone will not be enough
From the perspective of the statistical authority, Nguyen Thu Oanh, Head of the Services and Price Statistics Department under the National Statistics Office, stated that if oil prices continue to escalate due to prolonged tensions in the Middle East, this factor alone could add around 1–2 percentage points to CPI. In that scenario, keeping inflation within the target approved by the National Assembly this year would become far more challenging.
Oanh recommended closely monitoring global and domestic petrol price developments in order to introduce timely policy responses. At the same time, relevant stakeholders must ensure stable fuel supplies for the domestic market.
The National Statistics Office also proposed that the Government consider measures to support businesses through more flexible management of fuel prices, transport fees and certain logistics-related charges. In addition, authorities could study reducing or deferring certain fees and charges associated with export activities, particularly for sectors heavily affected such as agricultural products, seafood and textiles.
Furthermore, the State Bank of Viet Nam should direct credit institutions to expand access to capital, while considering debt rescheduling mechanisms, repayment extensions and lower lending rates for export businesses affected by rising input costs and prolonged shipping times. Ministries and agencies should also intensify trade promotion efforts and support firms in finding alternative markets or expanding into markets less affected by geopolitical tensions.
According to Dr Nguyen Quoc Viet, Head of the Macroeconomic Research Team at the University of Economics and Business under Viet Nam National University, Ha Noi, pressure from the international environment — particularly prolonged tight monetary policies in major economies — has increased exchange rate risks and limited the State Bank’s room for flexible policy management.
Specifically, the US Federal Reserve (FED) may refrain from cutting interest rates as initially expected and instead maintain rates at elevated levels of 3.5–3.75% for most of 2026 in order to bring US inflation down to 2% by 2027. This could intensify pressure on the USD/VND exchange rate, forcing the State Bank of Viet Nam to remain cautious about lowering interest rates and potentially even requiring rate increases due to domestic liquidity pressures. However, maintaining high interest rates at this stage would raise capital costs and further squeeze businesses already struggling with imported inflation and rising input costs triggered by policy adjustments.
In early May 2026, a series of international organisations sharply revised upwards their Brent crude oil forecasts. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its average price forecast to 96 USD per barrel, compared with the previous projection of 79 USD. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs increased its forecast for Brent crude prices in the fourth quarter of 2026 to 90 USD per barrel, while Morgan Stanley projected that oil prices could climb as high as 110 USD per barrel in the second quarter.
Unlike previous inflationary periods, which were largely driven by excessive credit growth and rising domestic demand, current price pressures are more clearly “imported” in nature, being heavily influenced by energy prices, logistics costs, exchange rates and global geopolitical disruptions. This has significantly reduced the effectiveness of traditional policy tools such as interest rates and money supply controls, as many inflationary pressures now originate beyond the domestic economy’s direct control.
Against this backdrop, controlling inflation requires a more comprehensive and structural approach. Fiscal policy needs to play a leading role in reducing production costs and supporting businesses, while institutional reforms should be accelerated to improve resource allocation efficiency and lower compliance costs.
In particular, managing inflation expectations should be regarded as a key pillar of macroeconomic policymaking. Greater transparency, clearer communication regarding price adjustment roadmaps and enhanced policy communication would help stabilise market sentiment and limit speculative behaviour.
Over the longer term, inflation control must be balanced harmoniously with the objective of sustainable growth. This requires Viet Nam to accelerate the transformation of its growth model towards higher productivity, stronger supporting industries and reduced dependence on imported inputs. Only by addressing the structural causes of inflation can the economy maintain sustainable macroeconomic stability.
“Macroeconomic stability at the present stage is not merely about keeping CPI within a target range, but also about reinforcing the confidence of businesses and citizens in the purchasing power of the currency and the long-term development prospects of the economy,” Dr Nguyen Quoc Viet stressed.
