The forecast of the Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association shows that coffee exports in 2024 are likely to reach the 5 billion USD mark. If calculating the 2023-2024 crop year (from October 2023 to September 2024), Vietnam exported about 1.46 million tonnes of coffee with a value of 5.43 billion USD.
Export prices increase
According to the Import-Export Department under the Ministry of Industry and Trade, in September 2024, the average export price of Vietnam's coffee reached 5,469 USD/tonne, up 3.6% compared to August 2024 and 65.2% compared to September 2023. In the first 9 months of 2024, the average export price of Vietnam's coffee is estimated at 3,897 USD/tonne, up 56.0% over the same period last year.
The new record for coffee prices in September 2024 was due to concerns about unfavourable weather and the lack of coffee supply from the world's two leading producing countries, Brazil and Vietnam, which have not been improved.
Meanwhile, in the 2024-2025 crop year, Brazil's coffee output is forecast to reach 63 million bags, down 3 million from the previous crop year. Vietnam's coffee output is estimated at around 27 million bags, also lower than previously forecast. The global coffee market may be in deficit for the fourth consecutive year due to production decline in Vietnam and Brazil.
The reduced supply in the 2023-2024 crop year will push up coffee prices, and it will also affect the amount of coffee inventory transferred to the beginning of the 2024-2025 crop year, so many experts believe that coffee prices at the beginning of the 2024-2025 crop year will continue to be high.
Global coffee consumption continues to increase
According to information from the Institute of Policy and Strategy for Agricultural and Rural Development, South Korea is one of the fastest-growing coffee markets in the world, with more than 100,000 shops and revenue of about 11.2 billion USD in 2023, employing about 270,000 workers. In particular, the ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee market in the Republic of Korea is growing strongly thanks to its convenience, reasonable price and diverse flavors.
The demand for RTD coffee is expected to continue to increase, so exporting enterprises can focus on this segment. In the first 8 months of 2024, Vietnam's coffee exports to the Korean market reached 99.2 million USD, reaching 85% of the 2023 turnover with an output of 28,200 tonnes, reaching 62% of the 2023 volume. The average export price of instant coffee in August 2024 was 8,003 USD/tonne, up 15% over the same period in 2023. The average export price of unroasted, decaffeinated coffee in August 2024 was 3,996 USD/tonne, up 27% over the same period in 2023.
In the Japanese market, annual coffee consumption has exceeded 450,000 tons, promoting continuous growth. Thanks to innovation in flavour and packaging, the instant coffee market is worth about 15 billion USD. Japan also focuses on instant products rich in vitamins and collagen to meet the health consumption trend.
In the first 8 months of 2024, Vietnam's coffee exports to Japan reached 306.7 million USD, 96.4% of the 2023 revenue and output reached 75,400 tonnes, 68.1% of the 2023 volume. The average export price of instant coffee in August 2024 was 9,843 USD/tonne, up 47.4% over the same period in 2023. The average export price of unroasted, decaffeinated coffee was USD 5,290/ton, up 108.2% over the same period in 2023.
According to statistics from the International Trade Centre (ITC), in the first 7 months of 2024, Thailand imported 46.4 thousand tons of coffee, worth USD 233.5 million, up 48.8% in volume and 52.9% in value over the same period last year. In the first 7 months of 2024, the average price of imported coffee into Thailand reached USD 5,037/tonne, up 2.8% over the same period last year. The average price of imported coffee from Vietnam increased by 12.2% over the same period in 2023 to USD 3,811/tonne.
Regarding the supply structure, Thailand imports a large amount of raw coffee for domestic consumption and processing for export in the form of instant coffee. Statistics from ITC show that in the first 7 months of 2024, Thailand imported the largest amount of coffee from Vietnam, reaching 24,800 tonnes, worth 94.5 million USD, up 29.0% in volume and 44.8% in value over the same period last year.
Thailand has a diverse distribution channel system, creating many favourable opportunities for Vietnamese coffee to reach consumers. In addition, Vietnam, Thailand and other ASEAN countries participate in many bilateral and multilateral trade agreements, such as the ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement (ATIGA) and Free Trade Agreements between ASEAN and partner countries. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has opened up many opportunities for Vietnamese coffee exports to Thailand.
