After a prolonged period of being eroded by successive shocks – from the Covid-19 pandemic to supply chain disruptions and global trade conflicts – business confidence has not only recovered but is now returning to positive growth, surpassing even pre-pandemic levels. This marks a significant milestone, signalling that Viet Nam is increasingly regarded not merely as a short-term “safe haven” but as a long-term growth hub within the global strategies of European businesses.
Confidence surges after years of setbacks
After many years of entrepreneurship in Viet Nam, Csaba Bundik, Managing Director of Ceta Consulting Company, stated that business operations have generally proceeded smoothly. In recent years, not only Ceta but many other European businesses have consistently shown interest in opportunities across technology, infrastructure, and energy sectors in Viet Nam.
He noted with satisfaction that his company’s operations in 2025 were highly favourable, with growth exceeding planned targets, adding that many of his colleagues and friends in Europe are also paying close attention to the Vietnamese market, particularly since the EU-Viet Nam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) came into effect.
This sentiment reflects a broadly optimistic picture of the European business community’s confidence in opportunities and the investment environment in Viet Nam. A survey by DXL Research & Consulting revealed that the Q4 2025 BCI rose by 13.5 points compared with the previous quarter. This is the strongest quarterly increase since the index was launched in 2011. Notably, the improvement is not confined to one area but is consistent across assessments of current business conditions and near-term expectations.
According to Bruno Jaspaert, Chairman of EuroCham, after years of hovering around the mid-line, reaching 80 demonstrates that confidence is now grounded in delivery – in factories operating, orders returning, and investments being executed.
The BCI’s trajectory is closely tied to the macroeconomic context. In Q4 2025, Viet Nam’s GDP grew by 8.46%, the highest quarterly growth since Q4 2007. For the full year 2025, the economy achieved 8.02% growth, showcasing remarkable resilience amid global volatility.
The synchronisation between macroeconomic indicators and business sentiment indicates that current confidence is not a short-term reaction but a well-founded reassessment of Viet Nam’s resilience and growth prospects.
One standout survey result is that more than 88% of European respondents expressed a positive outlook for Viet Nam over the 2026–2030 period, including 31% who described themselves as “very optimistic”. This level of consensus reflects a shift in investor perception: from cautious consideration to strategic confidence.
“88% may be seen as a lucky number, but for our members, it is a reality-based assessment. We are witnessing a structural shift where Viet Nam is rapidly transforming into a powerful growth engine, on track to rank among the top three economies in ASEAN,” remarked Bruno Jaspaert.
The synchronisation between macroeconomic indicators and business sentiment indicates that current confidence is not a short-term reaction but a well-founded reassessment of Viet Nam’s resilience and growth prospects.
This confidence is reinforced by tangible business results: 60% of businesses reported improved performance compared with 2024, while 82% expect their results to continue improving in 2026. Notably, 87% of respondents said they would recommend Viet Nam as an investment destination to other foreign businesses, with the highest confidence levels reported among large-scale companies.
The survey also presents a nuanced picture of global trade tensions’ impact. In 2025, 42% of businesses reported net negative effects, while 24% benefited and 34% were largely unaffected. This divergence highlights growing adaptability, particularly among larger-scale enterprises.
Xavier Depouilly, General Manager of DXL Research and Consulting, observed: “While large multinational corporations are capitalising on their scale to double down on the long term, SMEs are operating without the same buffers against external shocks. Smaller firms are disproportionately exposed to volatility, forcing them to prioritise immediate revenue and survival rather than the broad expansion we see at the top of the market.”
Reform progress remains the key test
Despite the overall bright picture, the Q4 2025 BCI report still points to familiar bottlenecks. According to the survey, 53% of businesses identified administrative burdens as their biggest concern, though this figure dropped by 12 percentage points from Q3.
Additionally, 52% of businesses expressed concerns over unclear or inconsistently applied regulations. About one-third mentioned customs procedures, trade barriers, as well as visa and work permit restrictions. These factors not only cause operational delays but also increase compliance costs and reduce efficiency.
Resolution 68-NQ/TW on private sector development is regarded by the business community as a positive policy signal, promoting procedural simplification, digitalisation, and a strong shift from pre-approval to post-approval checks linked to enhanced inspection and supervision. However, 61% of businesses reported not yet experiencing tangible impacts, reflecting a gap between policy and execution.
Digital initiatives such as VNeID present a mixed picture. While 76% of businesses have completed registration, 24% still face difficulties, particularly among foreign-invested enterprises. This underscores the need for more flexible support and consistent, specific guidance during rollout.
According to European businesses, while global instability is difficult to control, the domestic legal framework is a fully improvable variable. Infrastructure development and accelerated public investment are expected to provide additional growth momentum in the next 12–18 months, alongside demands for faster processing and greater predictability in administrative procedures.
Reforms only truly matter when businesses feel them in daily operations, the EuroCham Chairman emphasised, noting that what businesses most desire now is consistency, predictability, and execution speed.
Reforms only truly matter when businesses feel them in daily operations. What businesses most desire now is consistency, predictability, and execution speed.
Entering 2026, with 50% of businesses prioritising operational expansion and diversifying investment portfolios, 45% focusing on recruitment and talent retention, and 41% advancing technology adoption, the Q4 2025 BCI can be seen as a “psychological pivot” for the new growth phase. Confidence has returned, but converting it into investment flows, productivity, and added value will depend directly on substantive reform progress.
In that context, the EuroCham Chairman affirmed that the European business community in Viet Nam will continue to accompany and advocate for resolving remaining obstacles, promoting reforms that deliver tangible benefits for both SMEs and multinational corporations.
Thus, the Q4 2025 BCI not only reflects business sentiment but also sets a clear benchmark for expectations. If reforms are implemented consistently and effectively, current confidence can fully become a driver for sustainable growth, bringing Viet Nam closer to its goal of becoming one of ASEAN’s leading economies in the coming decade.
Also according to the EuroCham report, 65% of surveyed companies assessed their current business conditions as positive in Q4 2025, with the figure rising to 69% when looking ahead to Q1 2026, suggesting that optimism is set to strengthen further as the new year begins. The gap between expectations and reality has narrowed significantly, as in Q3 2025 only 56% of businesses forecasted favourable Q4 conditions.
