Last July, at the first summit of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) held in Niger’s capital Niamey, the military-led governments of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger signed a “confederation treaty” with many goals, including strengthening efforts to deal with common challenges. The event, which Niger itself has emphasised, has laid the foundations for a “three-nation Sahel confederation”.
At the AES summit, the head of the Niger military government, General Abdourahamane Tiani, called for the alliance to replace any regional groupings by building a community of sovereign peoples, away from the control of “foreign powers”. The meeting announcement said AES would become a “confederation” of about 72 million people.
Launched in September 2023, the AES includes Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, three countries all ruled by the military after coups from 2020 to 2023 and are “struggling” to deal with jihadist violence, especially in the so-called “three borders” region. When building the alliance, the three governments quickly established a common defence structure and pledged to support each other.
Initially presented as a “defence alliance,” the AES quickly became a “strategic tool,” with many decisions that worried officials of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger repeatedly announced their withdrawal from ECOWAS, citing disappointment at the fact that ECOWAS has strayed from the ideals of its founders and has not been of much help in the fight against terrorism and instability.
Established in 1975, ECOWAS brings together representatives of West Africa, aiming to strengthen regional economic integration and development. In recent years, the bloc has struggled to reverse a wave of military coups in the region, including in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. While efforts to bring the three countries back into regional integration have yet to yield results, ECOWAS has had to deal with the news that Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have signed a “confederation agreement”, raising concerns about the union’s separation from West Africa.
Previously, relations between AES and ECOWAS have deteriorated significantly since the July 26, 2023 coup, which brought General Tiani to power in Niger. ECOWAS not only imposed strict economic sanctions on Niger but also threatened military intervention to reinstate the ousted president. Although the sanctions were lifted in February this year, relations between the two blocs remain frozen.
Observers are concerned that the formation of a “confederation” by Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger and their withdrawal from ECOWAS threatens the African Continental Free Trade Area, affecting the promotion of intra-bloc trade and efforts to improve the continent’s trade position in the global market. ECOWAS immediately held an extraordinary summit in Nigeria, expressing concern about the unstable situation and calling on the three countries to quickly return to democracy.
ECOWAS assessed that freedom of movement and the common market of 400 million people are being threatened when Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger leave ECOWAS. The risks of affecting the operations and even negatively impacting the existence of ECOWAS, hinder the freedom of movement and settlement of people, making the region's instability more serious.
Although the governments of the three AES countries emphasised that the establishment of a confederation would help strengthen mutual support plans and build a common defence strategy, as well as commit to effectively addressing security challenges, especially violence, the departure of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger from ECOWAS is also considered a heavy blow to security cooperation, especially in the field of intelligence sharing and participation in the fight against terrorism in the region.
Not to mention, the unified stance of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger separating from the region is considered to challenge the traditional influence of ECOWAS and its external allies, including France.
