The double-digit growth target poses a major challenge: mobilizing and allocating resources on an unprecedented scale while maintaining macroeconomic stability. This requires a consistent, closely coordinated, and effective management framework between monetary and fiscal policies – a “double lever” for achieving double-digit growth.
Creating a “double leverage” for growth
According to calculations, to achieve an average GDP growth rate of 10% per year during the 2026-2030 period, total social investment capital needs to be approximately 38.5 million billion VND, more than double that of the previous period. This is a very large figure, placing demands on the quality and structure of capital.
Dr. Dao Minh Tu, former Standing Deputy Governor of the State Bank of Viet Nam and member of the National Advisory Council on Financial and Monetary Policy, frankly acknowledged: The capital challenge for the coming period is enormous, not only in scale but also in the ability to mobilise and allocate effectively.
Over the past five years, total social investment reached approximately 17 million billion VND, but the next period will require nearly 40 million billion VND. Meanwhile, the financial system structure remains heavily dependent on bank credit. Credit currently accounts for over 50% of total social investment, with total outstanding loans of nearly 19 million billion VND. Notably, bank capital is primarily short-term, while investment needs are concentrated in infrastructure, energy, and industrial projects with long payback periods.
Sharing this view, Dr. Nguyen Quoc Viet, a lecturer at the School of Economics, Viet Nam National University, Ha Noi, argued that the biggest bottleneck currently lies in the shortage of medium and long-term capital, making the economy overly dependent on the banking system. Without restructuring the capital mobilisation system, pressure on interest rates and macroeconomic stability will increase. This reality shows that the growth model based primarily on bank credit has approached its limit.
If monetary policy plays a stabilising role, then fiscal policy will play a leading role in growth. In the coming period, fiscal policy needs to shift from a supportive role to an active leading role through public investment, especially strategic infrastructure projects. These are areas with the potential to create significant spillover effects and enhance the competitiveness of the economy.
In this context, monetary policy continues to play a pivotal role in macroeconomic stability while meeting the capital supply requirements of the economy. Deputy Governor of the State Bank of Viet Nam, Pham Thanh Ha, affirmed that monetary policy will be managed flexibly and proactively, but must ensure inflation control and system safety. This is a guiding principle throughout the management. From a practical perspective, the banking system is ready to provide sufficient capital to the economy, while continuing to reduce costs to lower lending interest rates and support businesses in accessing capital.
The banking system is ready to provide sufficient capital to the economy, while continuing to reduce costs to lower lending interest rates and support businesses in accessing capital.
Deputy Governor of the State Bank of Viet Nam, Pham Thanh Ha
Looking back at 2025, the coordination between controlled expansionary fiscal policy and flexible monetary policy has contributed to maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, and supporting the recovery of production and business. However, the growth rate of approximately 8.2% still shows a significant gap compared to the double-digit target.
According to experts, several factors are currently hindering the full effectiveness of “double leverage”. First, there are policy lags and a lack of synchronization in the design of the tools. Expansionary fiscal policy is hampered by slow disbursement, while loose monetary policy is “stuck” within the banking system due to weak credit demand.
Second, the efficiency of resource allocation is limited, as evidenced by the high ICOR in the public sector, reflecting a situation where investment has not generated commensurate value. More importantly, the current growth model still relies heavily on cheap capital and labor, while the impetus from productivity, a key factor in long-term growth, has not improved significantly.
Therefore, without a fundamental restructuring of policies, achieving double-digit growth will be difficult.
Coordinating policies according to “dynamic equilibrium”
General Secretary and President To Lam’s message emphasised that macroeconomic stability is the cornerstone, and policy management requires close coordination. Practical experience shows that without coordination, policies can cancel each other out. Conversely, when implemented synchronously, the synergistic effect is significant.
According to Ms. Pham Thi Thanh Tam, Deputy Director of the Department of Financial Institutions (Ministry of Finance), coordination between the Ministry of Finance and the State Bank of Viet Nam in managing fiscal and monetary policies plays a crucial role. Through this coordination, the Government can use policy tools to regulate the market, thereby supporting capital mobilisation and stabilising interest rates in the financial and monetary markets.
Furthermore, the core issue is not about choosing between easing or tightening, but rather designing a policy coordination mechanism based on a state of “dynamic equilibrium.” This concept is increasingly emphasized in modern macroeconomic management.
Dr. Nguyen Quoc Viet analysed that fiscal policy plays a role in stimulating aggregate demand and supply, while monetary policy ensures price stability and liquidity. “If one policy goes too far without adjustment from the other, it can easily lead to risks such as inflation or high interest rates,” Dr. Viet added.
It is clear that to achieve rapid and sustainable growth, Viet Nam cannot continue with the old mindset and approach. At the strategic level, double-digit growth cannot be achieved solely through policy expansion. As many experts have noted, this must be growth based on productivity, innovation, and efficient resource utilisation.
Therefore, coordinating monetary and fiscal policies is not just a matter of technical management, but an integral part of restructuring the growth model. The transformation in fiscal and monetary policy management, coupled with strong institutional reforms, will be key to unlocking resources and ushering the economy into a new phase of development.
