The resilience of many key commodity groups
Pepper is one of the industries with a very high export growth rate. President of the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association Hoang Thi Lien informed that from the beginning of the year to the end of September 2024, Vietnam has exported 203,000 tonnes of pepper, with a value of more than 1 billion USD, down 1.5% in volume but up 46.9% in value compared to the same period last year. It is forecasted that with favourable export prices, the pepper industry will bring in 1.3 billion USD in 2024.
“In the next 3-5 years, global pepper output will still not be enough to meet consumer demand. Therefore, Vietnamese pepper still has many opportunities to maintain growth,” said Lien.
Regarding textiles - one of Vietnam’s key export items, information from the Garment 10 Corporation said that Garment 10 is urgently completing orders for 2024, and the unit has full orders until the end of February 2025.
Currently, Garment 10 is negotiating new orders extending to the first quarter of 2025, and about 70% of orders for the first quarter of 2025 have been finalised. In particular, the company's revenue in 2024 is expected to increase by 10-20% compared to last year.
The General Secretary of the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association, Truong Van Cam, said that textiles and garments are one of the key industrial production sectors enjoying many advantages in export activities.
After the Fed lowered interest rates by 0.5% in early September, when inflation in the US and EU decreased, this helped stimulate consumption in the two major markets consuming Vietnam's textile and garment exports with the expectation that orders will improve in the coming time.
In addition, seasonal factors, festivals, the end of the year, discount policies, and consumer stimulus from companies will bring a more bustling year-end shopping season.
“From now until 2025, in the face of fluctuations in the market, Vietnam is expected to continue to be one of the countries benefiting from the trend of shifting textile and garment orders. It is expected that textile and garment exports will continue to maintain growth momentum,” said Cam.
Currently, most of Vietnam’s industries, from processed industrial goods to agricultural products, benefit from exports. The latest statistics from the General Statistics Office show that in the first nine months of 2024, the export revenue of goods reached 299.63 billion USD, an increase of 15.4% over the same period last year.
The export revenue of goods to markets, especially major trading partners, has recovered well and achieved high growth rates in the double digits. The US continued to be Vietnam's largest export market, followed by China, the Republic of Korea, and Japan.
In recent times, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has continued to direct trade promotion and export market expansion, with Trade Offices in countries operating actively, combining the exploitation of traditional markets with the expansion of new markets (Africa, Eastern Europe, Northern Europe, and West Asia). Therefore, Vietnam’s exports to most markets and major trading partners have recovered well and achieved positive growth.
On the other hand, Vietnam’s import turnover reached 278.84 billion USD, up 17.3% over the same period last year. In total, Vietnam’s import-export revenue reached 508.47 billion USD after the first nine months of the year.
Sharing about the structure of export goods, Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department under the Ministry of Industry and Trade Nguyen Cam Trang said that currently, the proportion of processed and manufactured industrial goods accounts for about 87-88% of total export revenue. The group of minerals and agricultural products only accounts for about 12%.
“The structure of goods is increasingly diverse in types; the scale of exported goods is increasing. At the same time, we have also developed several new items, such as tools, spare parts, and toys. Or, with vegetables and fruits, we see the prominence of durian. With the forecast of increasing room, this is considered a bright spot and will still be the main export industry in the coming time”, Trang stated.
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Agricultural export products are enjoying great price benefits. |
What are the opportunities for the last quarter of the year?
The demand of import markets at the end of the year, with many major festivals, is still increasing, and this is beneficial for export growth in the remaining quarter, especially for the garment, footwear, electronics and agricultural, forestry and fishery industries. Besides, the position of Vietnamese goods in major markets such as the US, EU, Japan, and the Republic of Korea are all growing strongly.
Notably, besides the increase in exports, imports of goods have also grown strongly in recent times. It is worth mentioning that imports of goods are still mainly focused on raw materials and supplies for production, so this increase can bring positive results for exports in the last period of the year.
Associate Professor Dr Dinh Trong Thinh, an economic expert, commented: “With the current order situation and looking at the acceleration of input material import, if businesses make efforts from now until the end of the year, in 2024, Vietnam is likely to reach an export turnover of about 770-780 billion USD. In favourable cases, it can reach 800 billion USD in import and export, far exceeding the record import and export of 732 billion USD in 2022. This is a high number, but it is completely achievable”.
To increase support for businesses, Trang shared that in the coming time, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will focus on issues mainly related to market development and providing market information to businesses.
In particular, the Ministry has directed the network of Vietnamese Trade Offices abroad to support businesses in promoting the efforts of Vietnamese businesses to adapt and meet the “green standards” of other countries.
Guidance and information related to foreign regulations and handbooks will also be implemented to provide associations and businesses with timely and fastest information so that businesses can proactively plan production and business to meet market requirements.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade will also coordinate with associations and industries to provide training and coaching related to models, brands, and product designs so that export products can develop sustainably in import markets.
