The Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) has warned of a potential shock to the global agricultural and food network as conflicts in the Middle East disrupt supply chains and drive up production costs. Rising energy prices are reverberating across the agricultural sector — from machinery operation and planting to the transport of produce.
Compounding the problem, several fertiliser plants in the Gulf region, a key global production hub, have shut down since the outbreak of hostilities. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a transit route for around 30% of global fertiliser shipments — has been severely restricted, pushing fertiliser prices up by about 50% compared with pre‑conflict levels.
These price pressures are directly undermining farmers’ livelihoods and risk destabilising agricultural production cycles worldwide. Fertiliser is a vital input for crop yields, particularly for staples such as wheat.
Analysts warn that if current trends persist, a full‑scale food crisis could unfold within six to 12 months.
As costs soar, farmers are revising production plans, reducing cultivated areas or altering crop mixes, which could lead to lower productivity in the coming season. The impact of sharply higher fertiliser prices is already rippling across many of the world’s food baskets.
In Australia, one of the leading wheat exporters, farmers are cutting planted acreage this year, sparking fears of a steep decline in harvest volumes.
FAO Director‑General Qu Dongyu cautioned that the consequences of fertiliser supply disruptions may not be immediate but will become evident at harvest time. Falling output will drive food prices higher, tightening global supplies. Analysts warn that if current trends persist, a full‑scale food crisis could unfold within six to 12 months.
Alongside fertiliser shortages, prolonged extreme heat is also taking a toll on the global food system, reducing crop yields and increasing livestock mortality.
A joint report from FAO and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) highlights the growing risk to food supplies as heatwaves become more frequent and intense.
To withstand global shocks, FAO urges governments to act swiftly by building strategic reserves, diversifying supply sources and investing in domestic agricultural production.
WMO Secretary‑General Celeste Saulo noted that extreme weather exposes and exacerbates structural weaknesses in agricultural systems. Maize yields in some regions have already fallen by around 10%, while wheat has suffered similar declines and is projected to deteriorate further if global temperatures rise by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius.
These disruptions underscore the vulnerability of the global food system to supply shocks, climate extremes and market volatility. Countries heavily reliant on imports, those with limited domestic production capacity, and poorer nations are bearing the brunt of the crisis.
To withstand global shocks, FAO urges governments to act swiftly by building strategic reserves, diversifying supply sources and investing in domestic agricultural production.
