The golden population period refers to a time when the working-age population (15-64) is at least twice the size of the dependent population (under 15 and over 65), or when the overall dependency ratio is below 50%.
According to experts, such a demographic structure appears only once in a country’s demographic history. This phase is widely recognised as a rare opportunity for breakthrough growth, rapid development and even the creation of economic miracles, as seen in many countries around the world.
From now until 2036, Viet Nam has only ten years left to capitalise on its golden population. While this may seem ample, it is in fact already the final sprint, considering that the country entered its most favourable period in terms of labour force as early as 2007.
After 2036, the population structure will undergo profound changes, given that Viet Nam’s rate of population ageing is among the fastest in the world, taking only about 27 years to move from an ageing stage to an aged population.
Instead of the current ratio, in which two working-age people support one dependent person, this relationship will be reversed in the future. Population ageing will have a powerful impact on the structure of the economy, necessitating changes in everything from infrastructure design and the labour market to the healthcare system. Social security will come under enormous pressure.
For this reason, 2026 carries exceptional significance in the country’s overall development trajectory. The Party and the State regard it as a milestone laying the foundation for a period of high growth (10% or more) under the next five-year socio-economic development plan, with the aim of escaping the middle-income trap and becoming a developed, high-income socialist-oriented country by 2045.
The foundation for entering the final sprint of the golden population era lies in policy decisions that translate efforts to remove institutional and administrative bottlenecks at the highest level into reality, along with breakthrough pillars such as energy, the private sector, the digital economy and innovation, human resources, and strategic infrastructure, all of which are being refined and strengthened.
In the immediate term, difficulties abound, ranging from the pressure of tariff barriers and the global trade war to the drag of internal challenges. Among these, the key issue is the competitiveness of domestic enterprises. While foreign-invested enterprises continue to grow strongly, the domestic private sector is still struggling with cost pressures and administrative barriers.
These businesses need support to renew growth models, undertake digital transformation, reform operations, boost productivity, and integrate more deeply into major value chains, rather than remaining confined to assembly work or small-scale trading with no access to core technologies. Action is urgently needed to prevent Vietnamese enterprises from losing on their home ground.
The year 2026 is not merely another administrative year. It is a year of aspiration to rise up, a year in which every policy decision, every infrastructure project and every hour of labour will directly shape the contours of a strong and prosperous Viet Nam in the mid-21st century.
The final sprint of the golden population era has begun. Now is the time for the entire nation to unite in determination and move forward together.
