Upbeat growth projections are set for the country’s import-export revenue as it could reach a record number this year of 700 billion USD or even 740 billion USD. Statistics from the General Department of Customs show that Vietnam’s total import-export revenue in the first six months of 2022 reached 371,32 billion USD, an increase of 16,4% (equivalent to an increase of 52,3 billion USD) compared to the same period in 2021. Of which, total export revenue reached 186,03 billion USD, up 17,3% (equivalent to an increase of 27,4 billion USD), and total import revenue reached 185,29 billion USD, up 15,5% (equivalent to an increase of 24,9 billion USD).
As import-export business witnessed a noticeable increase, the trade balance of export and import of goods has stabilised with a trade surplus of 740 billion USD in the first six months of 2022. This is such a positive outcome given that only a few months ago the trade balance of goods still had a trade deficit. Maintaining the trade balance has had a positive impact on multiple aspects, especially in contributing to improving the balance of payments, increasing foreign exchange reserves, and stabilising the VND/USD exchange rate. Thus, the executive agency can easily intervene.
It must be said that Vietnamese businesses have made good use of opportunities from the market since the Covid-19 pandemic is initially under control and the demand for necessities globally increases. For instance, in the first six months, the national aquatic exports were estimated at 5,7 billion USD, up 39,6%, while coffee exports reached 2,3 billion USD, an increase of nearly 50%.
As the demand for essential products grows ever larger, especially for agricultural products, it is expected that the export revenue of agricultural products could reach up to 50 billion USD this year, 10 billion USD higher than the estimate from early 2022. At the same time, the export and import revenue from essential goods reached nearly 62 billion USD per month.
According to experts, if the results are maintained as in the first six months, the scale of Vietnam’s export and import revenue will reach more than 740 billion USD in 2022. This is completely possible since the first month of the year has many long holidays while the difficulties caused by the Covid-19 pandemic have decreased. On the other hand, in recent years, the last months of the year have often had a larger scale of export and import revenue from goods than at the beginning of the year.
Despite the bright results, the journey for import-export business in the last months of the year faces many challenges due to increasing inflation in the Americas, the European Union (EU), etc. These are key markets of Vietnam’s export sector. The above situation makes the residents in these countries tighten their belts and the discretionary spending is down.
A representative of the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association (Vitas) acknowledged that the textile and garment export market has recovered strongly in the first six months of 2022, but, since the end of the second quarter, market fluctuations as well as worldwide inflation have slowed down this export growth. Moreover, people tend to spend on necessities and reduce consumption for other goods, including textiles. This affects the export revenue of goods. Not to mention, the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine shows no sign of ending. This conflict has pushed gasoline and oil prices higher in the first half of the year, while this is the input material for many other goods. Therefore, the costs of enterprises may continue to increase, affecting the selling price and competitiveness of their products.
Previously, in May, Vietnam had a trade deficit of 1.73 billion USD. This shows that potential risks in export and import activities in the last months of the year may occur, and at the same time, it requires state management agencies and the efforts of the whole enterprise to join hands in overcoming difficulties and creating favourable conditions to promote export and import of goods in the second half of the year.
