The aspiration for a strong and prosperous Viet Nam now stands at the threshold of a new stage of development. Growth drivers that have relied heavily on capital, cheap labour, and expanding inputs are gradually approaching their limits; total factor productivity growth is showing signs of slowing; and intensifying technological competition, economic uncertainty, and global geopolitical tensions are making the need to renew the development model increasingly urgent.
Breakthrough institutional foundations for a new era
Against this backdrop, a series of breakthrough resolutions on institutional reform, issued by the Politburo systematically and continuously since late 2024, has catalysed fresh momentum for reform — removing barriers to development, unleashing productive forces, unlocking resources, and laying the foundations for a new growth model so that Viet Nam can confidently enter a new era of national development.
If the journey towards independence in the autumn of 1945 addressed the question of national self-determination, Viet Nam’s development journey today confronts a different challenge: how can a medium-sized, lower-middle-income economy achieve a breakthrough and avoid the “middle-income trap” that few developing countries have managed to escape? After decades of growth driven by capital accumulation, an expanding pool of cheap labour, and resource-intensive exports, these traditional drivers are exposing stark limitations in the face of the demands of a new stage of development. This trajectory is consistent with the predictions of neoclassical growth theory.
The Solow model elucidates economic growth through capital accumulation, labour-force expansion, and technological progress, while treating the rate of technological advancement as an external factor. Going further, subsequent endogenous growth theories identify technology, innovation, and human capital as the decisive drivers of long-term growth.
In response to these demands, the 14th National Party Congress opened the 2026–2031 term with a call for systemic reform rather than isolated policy adjustments, expressly targeting specific bottlenecks in the old growth model. This can be viewed as a coordinated approach to “institutional architecture”, designed on a sound scientific foundation to respond promptly to the objective requirements of development in practice, rather than as an expression of subjective will.
Since late 2024, the Politburo has issued a series of pillar resolutions directed towards realising the aspiration for a strong and prosperous nation and turning Viet Nam into a developed, high-income country by 2045. These include Resolution No. 57-NQ/TW on breakthroughs in science, technology, innovation, and national digital transformation; Resolution No. 59-NQ/TW on international integration in the new situation; and Resolution No. 66-NQ/TW on reforming law-making and law enforcement to meet the requirements of national development.
At the same time, two strategic pillars that propel growth and national prosperity within Viet Nam’s socialist-oriented market economy have also been clearly defined: the state economic sector, under the Politburo’s Resolution No. 79-NQ/TW on state economic development, and the private economic sector, under Resolution No. 68-NQ/TW on private economic development. Resolution No. 68 identifies the private sector as one of the most important drivers of growth, while Resolution No. 79 affirms the leading role of the state economic sector in guiding and regulating the economy.
These resolutions are organically interconnected as parts of a coherent whole. The institutional framework established under Resolution No. 66 facilitates the development of both the state economic sector under Resolution No. 79 and the private sector under Resolution No. 68. The private sector, in turn, becomes a leading force in applying science and technology and promoting innovation under Resolution No. 57, thereby enhancing competitiveness in the process of international integration under Resolution No. 59.
This approach is also consistent with a broad body of international research on economic growth and development: the rule of law, investment, and trade openness are powerful drivers of growth. At the same time, institutional quality constitutes the foundation that shapes most other endogenous determinants of economic growth.
Strategic shift with a century-long vision
On July 28, 2026, Resolution No. 19-NQ/TW of the third Plenum of the 14th Party Central Committee on renewing Viet Nam’s development model was issued with five guiding viewpoints, embodying three major shifts in development thinking.
The first is a shift in growth drivers, from heavy reliance on expanding capital, labour, and other inputs towards increasing dependence on science and technology, innovation, digital transformation, artificial intelligence, and the quality of human resources.
The second is a shift in governance, from a mindset predicated primarily upon “management and control” towards one of “enabling and guiding development”, while ensuring a harmonious relationship among the State, the market, and society.
The third is a shift in resource mobilisation, combining domestic and external resources, with internal strengths playing the decisive role and external resources providing supplementary impetus for development breakthroughs.
These shifts are geared towards a long-term roadmap. By 2030, Viet Nam aims to establish the foundations of the new development model, realising breakthroughs in institutions, national governance, science and technology, strategic infrastructure, and high-quality human resources. By 2045, the goal is to become a developed, high-income country with a self-reliant, innovative, humane, and sustainable development model and deep international integration. Looking further ahead, the Resolution sets out a vision of laying the foundations for the country’s next 100 years of development, from 2030 to 2130.
The central issue is not simply to mobilise more resources, but to improve the efficiency with which those resources are allocated and utilised. The focus is therefore on reforming the financial system, upgrading the stock market and national credit rating, and restructuring the allocation of public resources. This process is reinforced by major policy decisions on land institutions under Resolution No. 21-NQ/TW on viewpoints and orientations for amending the Land Law and related laws, and on the marine economic space under Resolution No. 20-NQ/TW on building and developing Viet Nam into a strong maritime nation. This also reflects a point emphasised by many economists: public investment, when concentrated on key projects with substantial spillover effects rather than dispersed too thinly, can serve as an important lever for economic growth.
Looking at the broader picture, an increasingly coherent policy architecture is taking shape: the “four pillar resolutions” lay the institutional foundations, while Resolution No. 19-NQ/TW further shapes the national development model with a vision through 2045 and beyond. Yet the aspiration for a strong and prosperous nation can become reality only when these major policy decisions are converted into higher productivity, stronger businesses, more efficient resource allocation, and a better quality of life for the people.
Eighty-one years ago, the greatest aspiration of the Vietnamese nation was to secure independence, freedom, and the right to determine its own future. Today, that aspiration is being advanced through a coherent and consistent series of institutional reforms aimed at turning Viet Nam into a developed, high-income country by 2045.
Eighty-one years ago, the greatest aspiration of the Vietnamese nation was to secure independence, freedom, and the right to determine its own future. Today, that aspiration is being advanced through a coherent and consistent series of institutional reforms aimed at turning Viet Nam into a developed, high-income country by 2045. The thread running from the autumn of independence to the new era of development remains the Vietnamese nation’s determination to be master of its own destiny. What has changed is that this journey is now guided by an increasingly systematic, scientific, and consistent reform mindset and vision. This provides grounds for confidence that Viet Nam’s aspiration to become a strong and prosperous nation is no longer merely an ambition, but is emerging as an inevitable trend and gradually becoming a reality.
