A research group of the VEPR forecast the country’s economic growth could reach 6.33 percent in the first quarter of 2020, 6.27 percent in the second quarter, 6.58 percent in the third quarter, and 6.64 percent in the last one.
The whole year’s growth is projected at 6.48 percent. Meanwhile, the inflation rate in the respective quarters would be 4.88 percent, 4.49 percent, 4.13 percent, and 4.04 percent.
According to the group, Vietnam’s economic outlook in the long run will depend on the attraction of the foreign direct investment (FDI), the removal of institutional barriers, the improvement of business environment, and the equitisation of State-owned enterprises.
Trade and international investment activities are expected to thrive after the signing of free trade agreements such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA).
However, Vietnam should be cautious in international trade relations, the group said.
In 2019, Vietnam’s economy expanded by 7.02 percent, lower than 7.08 percent in 2018. The growth was mainly driven by industry, construction, and service sectors.
Despites headwinds in 2019 such as unfavourable weather conditions and the outbreak of African swine fever, the agro-forestry-fishery sector recorded growth of 2.01 percent. The aquaculture sector in particular posted an impressive growth of over 6 percent.
The service sector expanded more than that in the previous year, with growth of over 7 percent seen in finance, banking, insurance, wholesale and retail fields.