Achieving profit targets
According to data from the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), by the end of 2024, total credit growth across the banking system reached 15.08%, a sharp increase from the 7.38% recorded as of September 17, 2024. This significant rise in credit during the final quarter has positively impacted bank profit growth. Many banks have announced that they have met or exceeded their profit targets. Some banks even estimated annual profit growth reaching the billion-dollar mark.
For example, Vietcombank’s pre-tax profit set a new record in 2024, surpassing the planned target of 42 trillion VND, up 4.8% from 2023, maintaining its position as the most profitable bank in the sector. BIDV followed, reporting standalone pre-tax profits exceeding 30 trillion VND (equivalent to over 1.1 billion USD), a 12.4% increase from the previous year.
Similarly, VietinBank posted positive revenue growth and met its profit targets. In October 2024, VietinBank set its business plan for the year, targeting a pre-tax profit of 26.3 trillion VND, an 8.7% increase from 2023. Meanwhile, Agribank, despite facing business challenges in 2024, still managed an over 8% increase in pre-tax profit, reaching 27.57 trillion VND at the standalone level and 27.93 trillion VND at the consolidated level.
Beyond the ‘Big Four’ state-owned banks, private commercial banks also reported solid profit growth.
Optimistic expectations
For 2025, the SBV has set a credit growth target of 16%, up 1% from 2024. This means total outstanding credit in the economy is expected to exceed 18.1 quadrillion VND by the end of 2025, representing an increase of nearly 2.5 quadrillion VND.
Financial analysts believe that with an improving macroeconomic outlook, credit growth could continue at 15-16% in 2025. The year’s credit expansion is expected to be more robust than the previous year, driven by better capital absorption in the economy and higher profit targets set by banks.
For instance, BIDV aims for a credit growth rate of 14%, in line with SBV’s assigned quota, and pre-tax profit growth of 6-10%. Vietcombank has set a target for total assets to increase by at least 10% and pre-tax profit to rise by 5% year-over-year. HDBank aims for a pre-tax profit of approximately 20 trillion VND, a 25% increase from 2024.
Additionally, according to a business trend survey conducted by the SBV in January 2025, 85.1% of financial institutions expect positive profit growth compared to 2024, while 9.6% are concerned about a decline, and 5.3% anticipate stable profits. Although official Q4 2024 financial reports have not yet been released, most banks have recorded a decline in net interest margin (NIM) over the first nine months of 2024, a trend that continued into Q4.
In a scenario where credit growth reaches 15-16%, analysts from VCBS forecast that the banking sector’s profit could increase by approximately 15% in 2025. However, profit growth is expected to vary significantly among different bank groups. State-owned banks are projected to see a 12% rise, while dynamic private banks may experience growth of up to 20%. Smaller banks, meanwhile, are expected to post profit growth of around 8%.
