Inflation remains under control despite rising price pressures

The figures were presented at the second annual forum on market and price developments in Viet Nam in 2026, jointly organised by the Academy of Finance and the Ministry of Finance's Price Management Department in Ha Noi on July 9.

Speaking at the forum, Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Manh Thieu, Deputy Director of the Academy of Finance, said the country's ambition to achieve GDP growth of at least 10% this year would place significant pressure on monetary and fiscal policy, making it increasingly difficult to balance rapid economic expansion with macroeconomic stability.

Inflation accelerated between February and April, driven largely by rising global prices for fuel, gas and construction materials, before easing towards the end of the second quarter as food supplies improved and international oil prices declined. June's CPI fell 0.39% from the previous month, mainly due to lower fuel prices.

Officials from the Price Management Department said proactive and flexible policy measures had helped stabilise domestic markets despite volatility in global commodity prices. Tax and fee reductions on fuel, together with efforts to secure supplies of essential goods, helped curb cost-push inflation and support businesses and households.

However, economists warned that inflationary pressures remain considerable. The 4.38% increase recorded in the first six months represents the highest first-half inflation rate in 12 years, leaving limited room for further price increases.

According to the National Statistics Office, monthly CPI growth for the rest of the year would need to average only around 0.2% to keep annual inflation at about 4.5%.

Economist Ngo Tri Long outlined three scenarios for 2026, forecasting average inflation of 4.2-4.4% under favourable conditions, 4.4-4.7% under the baseline scenario and 4.8-5.2% if adverse risks materialise.

Experts stressed that close coordination between monetary, fiscal and price management policies, alongside exchange rate stability, secure supplies of essential goods and effective policy communication, will be crucial to containing inflation while sustaining economic growth.