VFA suggests that India’s decision to end export restrictions, along with its expected bumper harvest, will lead to abundant global rice supply, putting pressure on most rice-exporting countries in 2025, including Vietnam.
Statistics show that India is on track to achieve a record rice production of 119.93 million tonnes in the Kharif 2024/25 season, up 5.89% compared to the previous year.
Meanwhile, India’s rice reserves have also increased. As of November 1, 2024, the country’s rice reserves reached 44.08 million tonnes, up 17% from the previous year, mainly due to the 2023 rice export ban and ongoing government procurement activities.
These reserves are significantly higher than the buffer stock requirement of 10.25 million tonnes for the October to December period. The relaxation of export restrictions on all types of rice except broken rice allows India to meet domestic demand while supporting exports.
In light of this situation, to achieve export targets for 2025 and maintain export rice prices, Vietnam needs to pay special attention to market promotion, opening new markets, and further improving rice quality to export to high-price markets.
As of November 2024, Vietnam has exported approximately 8.5 million tonnes of rice, with a value of 5.31 billion USD, up 10.6% in volume and 22.4% in value compared to the same period in 2023, exceeding the total value for all of 2023.
