The remaining time of the conference is limited, while the prospects of reaching a breakthrough final agreement are still uncertain.
As COP30 in Brazil is expected to conclude on November 21 (local time), members of the negotiating delegations are believed to be facing sleepless nights. The meeting on November 17 continued late into the night as host country Brazil pressed negotiating teams to seek breakthrough solutions and resolve profound disagreements. Two key issues are hindering the negotiations, including the plan for emissions reductions being considered insufficiently strong; and disagreements over climate finance.
A draft joint agreement has been introduced by Brazil; however, moving from a draft to a decisive and comprehensive final document remains a major challenge. According to Western media, the draft reflects a deep division between a coalition of countries seeking a concrete roadmap to phase out fossil fuels on one side and a group of oil-producing nations opposing this effort on the other.
The draft proposes flexible options, such as holding a non-mandatory workshop to discuss “low-carbon solutions” or a ministerial roundtable to help countries gradually move away from dependence on fossil fuels. Meanwhile, the issue of climate finance — the most difficult bottleneck at COP30 and at many previous conferences — remains unresolved. Some countries argue that the language of the draft is still too soft.
What the world expects from the climate conference in Brazil in 2025 is not new promises or new commitments, but the actual implementation of previous commitments. At COP29 in 2024 in Azerbaijan, developed countries pledged to contribute 300 billion USD annually to climate finance from 2035. However, this figure is only a drop in the ocean compared to actual needs. Research by the United Nations shows that developing countries require roughly four times the amount pledged.
It is worth noting that even the annual figure of 300 billion USD is considered difficult to achieve without the participation of the US, a country that often plays a decisive role in international negotiations. The absence of the delegation from the US is a sombre note at the conference in Belem. The trend of reduced foreign aid is increasing, complicating the issue of climate finance. Developed countries not only face budgetary pressures due to global economic difficulties and the need to prioritise resources for post-Covid-19 recovery, but must also confront domestic public opposition to large spending on international commitments.
Meanwhile, for developing countries, any climate action — from implementing early warning systems to upgrading infrastructure and adapting to climate change — requires financing. Developing countries are currently encouraged to seek new financing models, such as revenue generated from taxes on aviation and shipping, or mobilising finance from the private sector.
At COP30, some positive developments have been recorded, such as a group of countries announcing a commitment to mobilise 2.5 billion USD by 2030 to halt deforestation in the Congo Basin, and several countries such as Denmark and the Republic of Korea, putting forward more ambitious emissions reduction plans.
COP30 takes place on the 10th anniversary of the historic Paris Agreement on climate change. Reflecting on the past decade, researcher Joanna Depledge of the University of Cambridge (UK) observed that the Paris Agreement cannot be labelled a failure, but neither can it be considered a major success; it remains “a glass half full, half empty.” The difficulty of reconciling interests continues to be the core reason why climate debates cannot reach a conclusion. COP30 is once again an important test of global solidarity in the face of challenges that belong to no single nation.
