The oil supply–demand balance is assessed as remaining solid throughout next year, together with forecasts that the global economic growth outlook could recover, offering hope for a brighter picture for the “black gold” market.
OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) presents an optimistic assessment of the sustainability of the oil supply–demand balance next year, supported by continued strong global demand and reasonably well-managed supply.
Crude oil demand for OPEC and its partners (OPEC+) in 2026 is estimated to average around 43 million barrels per day, nearly equivalent to the output of the oil-market-leading group in November 2025.
In November, after the latest agreement to adjust output increases came into effect, OPEC+ produced about 43.06 million barrels per day, up 43,000 barrels per day compared with the previous month.
The closing months of this year have seen stability in the oil market, strong global demand and generally well-managed supply, supported by economic growth in both Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and non-OECD member countries.
OPEC has maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth at 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026. OPEC’s optimistic assessment comes as the oil market remains stable and gains additional growth momentum from non-OECD economies, particularly in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, where industrial activity and transport demand continue to increase, offsetting the slower growth in some developed economies.
The global economy is likely to maintain steady growth, supported by resilient consumption, limited impact from trade tensions, and relatively accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in major economies.
OPEC’s latest forecast offers a glimmer of hope for a rebound in the oil market after a year marked by volatility. In 2025, geopolitical tensions, US tariff policies and OPEC+ production cut decisions contributed to instability in the oil market.
Interest rate cut decisions by the US Federal Reserve System (FED), along with US sanctions on Russian oil companies, have also affected oil prices.
The Russia–Ukraine conflict has pushed oil prices higher due to concerns over potential declines in Russian crude oil supply as Moscow’s oil sector faces Western sanctions.
Amid unpredictable geopolitical developments worldwide, the oil market still faces concerns over potential oversupply as OPEC+ increases production.
At the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC) held in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), traders predicted that oversupply could reach up to 2 million barrels per day in 2026.
However, UAE Minister of Energy and Infrastructure Suhail Al Mazrouei affirmed that there is no oversupply in the global oil market. Al Mazrouei argued that global oil demand remains very strong due to the boom in artificial intelligence (AI) data centres.
Moreover, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has recently raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026, while lowering its supply growth outlook, leading to a slight reduction in surplus next year. The IEA increased its forecasts for global oil demand growth for both this year and next year, citing improved macroeconomic prospects and significantly reduced tariff concerns.
Specifically, this year’s global oil demand is expected to rise by 40,000 barrels per day to 830,000 barrels per day, and in 2026 by 90,000 barrels per day to 860,000 barrels per day. Meanwhile, according to the OECD, the global economy has demonstrated surprising resilience in 2025, and global growth could recover in 2026.
Breakthroughs in trade agreements with the US have helped restore confidence in economic growth prospects after a period of negative impact on consumption. Falling oil prices and a weaker US dollar — both currently at their lowest levels in nearly four years — are expected to continue to stimulate oil demand next year.
