According to calculations by the Ministry of Finance, achieving the double-digit growth target will require around 7.7 quadrillion VND annually during the 2023–2026 period, more than twice the level recorded in 2021–2025.
Reducing reliance on bank credit
According to Ha Thu Giang, Director of the State Bank of Viet Nam’s Credit Department for Economic Sectors, monetary and credit policies continued to help lay the foundation for GDP growth of 8.18% in the first six months of 2026.
The State Bank of Viet Nam (SBV) directed credit institutions to channel capital towards production and business, priority sectors, growth drivers, and key projects, while reviewing and improving credit mechanisms, simplifying procedures, and addressing difficulties facing people and businesses. More than 1,000 meetings, dialogues, and bank-business connection events were held nationwide.
At the same time, specialised credit programmes continued to deliver positive results. The lending programme for the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors recorded cumulative disbursements of more than 225.577 trillion VND, reaching 122% of its target. The social housing credit programme under the Government’s Resolution No. 33 recorded disbursements of 12.44 trillion VND, with outstanding loans reaching 10.175 trillion VND.
The programme providing loans for the production, processing, and consumption of high-quality, low-emission rice in the Mekong Delta had disbursed around 4.4 trillion VND. The credit programme for electricity, transport, and strategic technology infrastructure had outstanding loans of 11.65 trillion VND.
However, the SBV representative warned that the banking system is facing growing pressure to provide capital for the economy. Total social investment capital needs in 2026 are expected to reach around 5.1 quadrillion VND. Meanwhile, the credit-to-GDP ratio stood at around 145% in 2025, showing that the economy remains heavily dependent on bank financing.
Demand for medium- and long-term capital for infrastructure, energy, and key projects is increasing, while the funds mobilised by credit institutions consist mainly of short-term deposits. This is increasing maturity mismatch risks and putting liquidity pressure on the banking system.
Therefore, alongside proactive and flexible credit management, it is necessary to accelerate public investment disbursement, reform administrative procedures, remove obstacles to investment and business activities, and improve the economy’s capacity to absorb capital.
"These are important conditions for achieving the target of economic growth of 10% or higher, while maintaining macroeconomic stability and ensuring the safety of the banking and financial system," Giang said.
Against this backdrop, Viet Nam’s stock market continues to expand strongly and increasingly affirms its role as an important channel for mobilising medium- and long-term capital for the economy.
According to Ha Duy Tung, Vice Chairman of the State Securities Commission of Viet Nam (SSC), as of June 30, 2026, the market capitalisation of listed equities stood at around 10.8 quadrillion VND, up 6% from the end of 2025 and equivalent to 82.6% of estimated 2025 GDP. Across the market, 54 companies had a market capitalisation of more than 1 billion USD, including four with capitalisation exceeding 10 billion USD. The size of the listed bond market reached around 2.8 quadrillion VND, equivalent to 22.1% of GDP.
Notably, FTSE Russell’s announcement that Viet Nam’s stock market would be upgraded from Frontier Market status to Secondary Emerging Market status could help Viet Nam attract billions of US dollars from index funds and actively managed investment funds. HSBC and the World Bank estimate that the Vietnamese market could attract around 8–10 billion USD in the long term.
"The stock market helps businesses diversify their sources of capital and mobilise long-term funds for infrastructure investment, technological innovation, and production expansion, while reducing their reliance on bank credit. It is also a channel for channelling idle household savings into production and business, enabling people to participate in and benefit from corporate growth," the SSC representative said.
Gradually shifting towards science and technology
Alongside its development potential, the stock market continues to face a number of risks. Dr Can Van Luc, a member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council, said that cash flows and market capitalisation remain concentrated in a number of large sectors and companies. The proportion of individual investors is high, herd mentality is strong, and transparency, professionalism, product diversity, and investor structure remain limited.
Notably, margin lending at securities companies increased from around 125 trillion VND at the end of the first quarter of 2023 to 445 trillion VND at the end of the second quarter of 2026, more than 3.5 times higher. Investors are increasingly using financial leverage, posing significant risks, particularly when the market reverses.
At the same time, financial markets are facing new risks related to cybersecurity, data, and financial crime. Technological infrastructure, databases, and surveillance systems need to be further improved to make the market more transparent and secure and enhance its resilience. The legal framework must also keep pace with new financial models and products, while closely controlling cross-ownership and interconnected risks between the financial and real estate sectors.
Therefore, a comprehensive programme is needed to develop the financial market towards greater integration among its segments, while expanding long-term funding sources and non-bank financial institutions. New areas such as digital finance, green finance, carbon markets, and tokenised assets also need to be developed according to appropriate roadmaps, alongside stronger management and supervisory capacity.
At the same time, mechanisms for bankruptcy, debt resolution, and the handling of weak financial institutions need to be improved; a national financial database and early-warning system should be established; and there should be a strong shift from administrative pre-inspection towards supervision based on risk, technology, and data. In the long term, financial market development should rest on three foundations: reliable institutions, transparent information, and strict market discipline.
However, Luc also noted that a growth model based primarily on capital and labour cannot be sustained in the long term. Viet Nam needs to gradually shift towards growth based on science and technology, innovation, institutional reform, and higher productivity. Therefore, Viet Nam needs to take a leap forward by simultaneously combining three elements — investment, technology absorption, and innovation — rather than developing sequentially.
According to Prof. Dr Tran Tho Dat, Chairman of the Scientific and Training Council of the National Economics University, artificial intelligence (AI) could become one of the key drivers enabling Viet Nam to sustain double-digit growth in the long term. This will depend on the pace of AI adoption and the Government’s supporting policies.
Without making use of AI, the economy could maintain a growth rate of only around 6.5%. Under an accelerated scenario, growth could reach around 9%. Meanwhile, with AI deployed extensively and widely across the economy, Viet Nam could achieve growth of 10% or higher during the 2027–2035 period.
In addition, resources need to be concentrated in four sectors with major spillover effects: information and communications technology, finance and banking, science and technology, and manufacturing. These sectors currently account for around 37% of GDP but have the potential to generate more than 50% of AI’s impact, thereby creating spillover effects across around 10–12 other economic sectors.
"The pace of action and capacity to absorb technology today will directly determine Viet Nam’s growth scenario over the next decade," Dat emphasised.
