Q: Half of 2026 has now passed. How do you assess Viet Nam's economic performance so far this year and its growth prospects in the coming period?
A: The Asian Development Bank assesses Viet Nam's economic outlook as broadly positive. Economic data for the first six months of the year show strong growth, with gross domestic product (GDP) expanding by 8.18%. The main drivers have been industrial production, exports, foreign direct investment (FDI), public investment, services, and domestic consumption. These factors demonstrate the economy's resilience and adaptability.
However, external risks have intensified. As a highly trade-dependent economy, Viet Nam is vulnerable to changes in tariffs, trade barriers, energy prices, exchange rates, and demand in major markets, all of which could directly affect exports, production, and investment. Imports have also grown faster than exports, indicating that domestic production is expanding but remains heavily reliant on imported inputs.
Even so, Viet Nam still has policy space, particularly on the fiscal side, although it should be used selectively. Public debt remains within a manageable range, providing room for development investment. What matters, however, is not only the scale of spending or borrowing but also the efficiency of capital utilisation and the quality of investment projects.
Amid mounting inflationary pressures, exchange rate fluctuations, and a widening trade deficit, monetary policy needs to become more prudent. Growth support should rely more on targeted fiscal measures and supply-side reforms. Public investment should focus on infrastructure, energy, logistics, digital transformation, workforce skills, and climate resilience.
Support for businesses should also be targeted. Rather than relying on broad-based demand stimulus, efforts should continue to reduce compliance costs, improve administrative procedures, and facilitate access to finance for enterprises with strong production, export, and innovation capacity and those participating in value chains. This approach would support growth without undermining macroeconomic stability.
Looking ahead, the key issue is not simply the pace of growth but its quality. Viet Nam needs to accelerate its transition towards higher productivity, stronger innovation, a more robust domestic private sector, deeper capital markets, and closer linkages between the foreign-invested sector and domestic enterprises.
Q: Building on your point that Viet Nam should focus on the "quality of growth", based on ADB's experience of working with the Government, what do you see as the key structural bottlenecks that need to be addressed to enhance the country's competitiveness and achieve its ambitious growth targets?
A: Viet Nam has introduced a number of important reforms in recent years, particularly in administrative reform, decentralisation, improving the business environment, and developing new growth drivers. These are encouraging signals for the country's medium- and long-term prospects.
However, to achieve high-income status by 2045, Viet Nam must address several major constraints. These include policy implementation, investment procedures, land access, infrastructure, energy, logistics, workforce skills, capital markets, and innovation capacity. Another significant challenge is the relatively low productivity of domestic enterprises and their limited linkages with the foreign-invested sector.
Strategic resolutions and reforms can only deliver results if they are implemented consistently, accompanied by measurable outcomes and clear accountability. Viet Nam has adopted the right development direction, however, the real challenge lies in translating that vision into tangible improvements for businesses, labourers, and investors.
Q: Viet Nam has recently been classified as an upper-middle-income country after the World Bank raised its gross national income (GNI) per capita for 2025 to 4,970 USD under its updated methodology. What breakthrough policies should Viet Nam prioritise to sustain high, inclusive, and resilient growth while avoiding the middle-income trap?
A: To avoid the middle-income trap, Viet Nam needs to shift from a growth model driven largely by capital, low-cost labour, and foreign direct investment (FDI) towards one based on productivity, skills, innovation, and a stronger domestic private sector.
Sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), digital technology, and green industries have tremendous potential. However, they cannot develop through investment incentives alone. They require high-quality human resources, digital infrastructure, reliable energy supplies, intellectual property protection, international standards, applied research, and a vibrant domestic business ecosystem.
Growth also needs to become more inclusive. That means translating productivity gains into higher household incomes, better jobs, and greater opportunities for small and medium-sized enterprises. Viet Nam should invest more in skills development, workforce reskilling, strengthening linkages between domestic firms and the foreign-invested sector, and improving access to finance, technology, and markets.
The country's priorities should include improving the business environment, reducing compliance costs, enhancing access to land and long-term capital, strengthening corporate governance, supporting digital transformation, promoting technological innovation, and helping businesses meet international standards.
Domestic enterprises should also receive greater support to participate in supporting industries, logistics, technical services, and the supply chains of foreign-invested corporations.
In addition, capital markets need to be further developed so that businesses have access to long-term financing instead of relying excessively on bank credit. A stronger private sector will make growth more sustainable, more inclusive, and more resilient to external shocks.
Q: To achieve the multiple objectives for 2026 — including maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, safeguarding major economic balances, and achieving growth of 10% or more — what recommendations does ADB have regarding coordination between monetary policy, fiscal policy, and structural reforms?
A: If growth relies solely on monetary policy, the economy could face greater financial risks, particularly related to credit, debt, and macroeconomic stability. Conversely, simply expanding public spending without improving investment quality would generate only limited spillover effects for the private sector and productive capacity.
It is therefore essential to coordinate three pillars: fiscal policy should focus on infrastructure and strengthening supply-side capacity; monetary policy should prioritise macroeconomic stability; and institutional reforms should continue to reduce business costs, remove barriers, and create stronger incentives for private-sector development.
Such policy coordination will help Viet Nam achieve its dual objective of maintaining high short-term growth while improving the quality of growth over the longer term.
The Asian Development Bank will continue supporting Viet Nam in areas that have the greatest impact on long-term growth and economic resilience. Cooperation priorities include sustainable infrastructure, transport, logistics, urban development, water resources, energy transition, power grids, climate adaptation, healthcare, skills development, private-sector development, and improving the quality of public investment.
Going forward, one important priority is helping Viet Nam improve project preparation and implementation. To achieve its ambitious growth targets, the country needs not only more projects but also higher-quality projects with strong disbursement capacity, significant spillover effects, and the ability to leverage greater private investment.
ADB can also provide loans, technical assistance, policy advice, environmental and social standards, green financing mechanisms, and climate finance. The goal is to help Viet Nam achieve high, sustainable, and inclusive growth while meeting its climate commitments.
Reporter: Thank you very much.
