Forecasting business performance and profits is standard corporate practice. However, with tariff-related turmoil casting a shadow over the US economy, an increasing number of major companies are opting to suspend their financial guidance—an indication they are navigating a fog of uncertainty.
Many US firms are now delaying or scrapping earnings forecasts, at least in the short term. This trend echoes the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, when companies hesitated to provide projections that could quickly become obsolete.
The suspension of forecasts poses challenges for analysts who rely on such figures to evaluate business outlooks and economic health. Rapid and unpredictable shifts in policy are leaving companies unsure whether they need to overhaul their business models.
Industries losing visibility into their future
Automaker Stellantis, which owns brands like Jeep and Dodge, announced on May 1 that it could no longer offer profit growth guidance for the year due to the complexity of assessing the impact of evolving tariff policies.
A day earlier, General Motors also abandoned its 2025 profit growth projection, citing unaccounted-for tariff implications. German luxury carmaker Mercedes-Benz followed suit with a similar decision.
In the tech sector, social media company Snap saw its shares plummet by 14 per cent on April 29 after revealing it would not issue guidance for the second quarter of 2025, citing macroeconomic uncertainty and potential disruptions to the advertising market.
Major US airlines—including American Airlines, Delta, Southwest, and Alaska Air—have likewise withdrawn full-year forecasts, reflecting mounting economic pressure. Delta CEO Ed Bastian warned of a looming recession and noted that the airline’s growth had virtually stalled.
While some firms, such as UPS, have maintained their forecasts, they acknowledge potential revisions ahead. UPS CEO Carol Tomé commented, “There’s a lot of uncertainty in the second half of the year, because these tariffs will ultimately impact American consumers. Consumer sentiment has already weakened compared to earlier this year, though it remains relatively resilient.”
Forecast suspensions: A serious red flag
Paul Beland, Global Director of Research at CFRA, told CNN that companies pulling back financial guidance is “a very big deal.”
He explained that it significantly raises the level of uncertainty, something already evident in indicators such as consumer sentiment. While the S&P 500 stock index remains high, profit growth expectations have declined over the past six months.
Beland noted striking similarities to the peak of the pandemic, when global supply chains were severely disrupted. However, unlike that period, there is now a lack of strong support from the US Federal Reserve or substantial fiscal stimulus from the government.
