Nine months have passed since the 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of Viet Nam, and the country has been actively implementing the goals set out at the Congress. Institutional reform has been a key focus, with the National Assembly holding two sessions following the election. As a result, despite considerable volatility in the international economic environment adversely affecting Viet Nam’s economy, industrial production has continued to grow strongly, while consumption, exports, disbursement of public investment capital, and foreign direct investment (FDI) have all maintained upward momentum. Stability in the financial and monetary markets has helped increase budget revenue and expand fiscal policy space. However, a number of difficulties and challenges are also becoming increasingly apparent. Existing growth drivers are gradually losing their positive impact on the economy, while new drivers are emerging slowly and remain unstable.
To address this situation, one of the key tasks of the current Party Congress term is to renew the growth model along a more modern, efficient, and sustainable trajectory, with sufficient resilience to respond to regional and global fluctuations. Viet Nam’s new economic growth model must therefore be defined as part of a broader development framework aimed at transforming the country into a developed, high-income industrial nation. This requires economic growth to reach double-digit rates over the next 10–15 years.
According to various theories of sustainable development, the national development models of developing countries and members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) rest on three main pillars: economic development, environmental protection, and social welfare. These three areas are closely interconnected, and the choice of breakthrough priorities in each period depends on the prevailing socio-economic circumstances.
One of the key tasks of the current Party Congress term is to renew the growth model along a more modern, efficient, and sustainable direction, with sufficient resilience to respond to regional and global fluctuations.
In the early years of the 21st century, environmental protection became a leading priority, accompanied by multilateral commitments. However, these commitments were not backed by sufficient financial resources, nor were mechanisms established to determine how funding for global environmental protection should be shared. As a result, highly developed countries have benefited more than developing and less developed countries from the implementation of environmental protection policies. It is therefore crucial to determine Viet Nam’s position in the development process.
For Viet Nam’s renewed development model through to 2045, if economic development is regarded as the breakthrough priority for improving living standards and social welfare while fulfilling environmental protection commitments, economic growth at double-digit GDP rates can be seen as the apex of a development triangle, with environmental protection and social welfare forming its base. During this period, the model would take the form of an isosceles triangle, with strong investment prioritised for economic growth, improvements in people’s incomes, and the gradual adoption of a green economy to protect the environment. Human resources, digital infrastructure, and other factors would serve as the means and conditions for achieving the goals set for 2045.
In developing a new model, it is necessary to recognise that this is a socio-economic development model, not merely an economic one. It must therefore foster a harmonious relationship between production relations and the new productive forces. Developing these productive forces is essential to generating growth momentum and the financial resources needed for environmental protection and social welfare. Over the next 20 years, the goal should be to build domestic productive capacity strong enough to compete regionally and internationally, thereby strengthening self-reliance, economic autonomy, national security, and independence in foreign affairs.
According to various theories of sustainable development, the national development models of developing countries and members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) rest on three main pillars:
- Economic development
- Environmental protection
- Social welfare
For Viet Nam’s renewed development model through to 2045, if economic development is regarded as the breakthrough priority for improving living standards and social welfare while fulfilling environmental protection commitments, economic growth at double-digit GDP rates can be seen as the apex of a development triangle, with environmental protection and social welfare forming its base.
Developing the productive forces means, in practical terms, developing Vietnamese businesses regardless of whether they are state-owned or privately owned. Support for this process must be maintained consistently over the next 20 years. Institutional reform therefore essentially entails reforming production relations to guide the development of productive forces towards a modern socialist-oriented market economy. The State, understood here to encompass the National Assembly, the Government, and local authorities, must create the most favourable conditions for productive forces to develop while ensuring a balance between the interests of businesses and entrepreneurs, society, and, ultimately, the State.
It is essential to understand that businesses are the principal actors in renewing the growth model. The State’s role is to establish an institutional framework that mobilises all sectors and resources, enabling businesses to master selected strategic technologies. The State must identify key industries with the potential to diversify markets, providing the scale necessary to support the next phase of enterprise development.
Since Viet Nam’s new growth model places economic development at its centre, the scientific and technological foundations of the economy as a whole, particularly digital transformation, must be clarified. Digital transformation encompasses big data processing and the Internet of Things. In addition to improving state management capacity, it provides a basis for deploying scientific and technological advances more rapidly and at a reasonable cost.
Equally important, the mobilisation of public financial resources and public-private partnerships (PPPs) must serve as a major driver of the growth model.
According to the 2026 Economic Census, the economy has more than one million active businesses, of which private enterprises account for 96.6% and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) make up nearly 95% of the total. In addition to formally registered businesses, the country has 6.1 million active household businesses, providing livelihoods for more than 10 million workers.
It is essential to understand that businesses are the principal actors in renewing the growth model. The State’s role is to establish an institutional framework that mobilises all sectors and resources, enabling businesses to master selected strategic technologies.
Of these household businesses, 3.6 million are registered with the tax authorities and, by the end of the 2024 fiscal year, had contributed nearly 26 trillion VND to the state budget. Overall, SMEs and individual household businesses constitute the largest economic group, shaping the local economic landscape and providing livelihoods for tens of millions of workers.
Renewing the growth model to create new momentum must therefore involve two groups. The first comprises businesses and economic conglomerates, regardless of ownership, that take the lead in applying science and technology and fostering innovation, while participating more deeply in regional and global value chains. The second comprises SMEs and household businesses, which not only play an important economic and employment role but also help cushion society against sudden shocks.
Accordingly, two distinct groups of policies are needed. For large businesses, the State should establish enabling mechanisms, provide investment guidance, and support the development of international partnerships on the basis of the multilateral and bilateral agreements Viet Nam has signed with other countries. For SMEs and individual household businesses, the State should support the application of technology to business management, ensuring integration with public tax administration systems, environmental protection requirements, food hygiene and safety standards, and other relevant systems.
The State should invest in the technology and operating costs required to enable SMEs and household businesses to benefit from these systems, thereby strengthening their financial capacity and access to financing for subsequent investment cycles, while ensuring sustainable development. The State should not have to bear the long-term operational expenses of these technology systems, as the businesses concerned have commercial incentives to continue investing in and improving them once the initial period of state support has ended.
Only in this way can the responsibilities of state management agencies be clearly distinguished from the roles of businesses and entrepreneurs in realising a growth model that generates new momentum. This will help achieve the two goals set out at the 14th National Party Congress: by 2030, becoming an upper-middle-income industrialised country, and by 2045, becoming a developed, high-income country, enabling Viet Nam to stand shoulder to shoulder with nations around the world, as President Ho Chi Minh aspired.
Vietnamese businesses should be developed with a view to strengthening their capacity to absorb modern innovations, capitalise on technological and market opportunities, and build domestic technology companies capable of integrating deeply into the global economy. This objective must remain a consistent priority over the next 20 years.
