Falling below the replacement fertility level of 2.1 children per woman can have significant impacts on the size, structure, and quality of the population. Therefore, it is imperative for relevant sectors to adopt specific, practical, and reasonable measures to stabilise birth rates as soon as possible.
From 2006 to 2021, Viet Nam maintained a replacement-level fertility rate, ensuring a balanced population growth and age structure. As of 2023, the country's population stood at over 104 million.
Timely action is now essential
According to the Ministry of Health, Viet Nam is currently experiencing a demographic dividend — a period that offers significant potential for socio-economic development. Population quality and the Human Development Index have been steadily improving, and average life expectancy continues to rise. These important foundations have enabled a shift in population policy from family planning to population and development.
However, forecasts indicating continued fertility decline reveal that Viet Nam will exit its demographic dividend period by 2039. The working-age population is projected to peak in 2042, and population growth may turn negative after 2054. Prolonged low fertility can result in labour shortages, population decline, and accelerated ageing, thereby negatively affecting socio-economic development.
Over the past two decades, urban fertility rates have consistently fallen below replacement level, fluctuating between 1.7 and 1.8 children per woman, while rural fertility rates remain higher, ranging from 2.2 to 2.3 children per woman.
According to Le Thanh Dung, Director of the General Office for Population and Family Planning under the Ministry of Health, Viet Nam is transitioning from a high to a low fertility model, from early to delayed childbirth, and from a young to an ageing population. In this context, maintaining a stable and sustainable fertility rate is of utmost importance. As life expectancy rises and birth rates fall, population ageing accelerates. Therefore, it is essential to uphold the replacement fertility level and ensure a balanced birth rate across regions, particularly preventing rates from falling too low in major cities and key economic zones.
Currently, low fertility is concentrated in 21 provinces and cities (accounting for 39% of the national population), primarily in the Southeast, Mekong Delta, and South Central Coast regions. Ho Chi Minh City has the lowest fertility rate nationwide, with a total fertility rate of just 1.39 children per woman. In contrast, regions with stable or higher fertility include the Northern Midland and Mountainous Area (2.34 children per woman) and the Central Highlands (2.24 children per woman).
The Ministry of Health has submitted a proposal to the Government to amend Article 10 of the 2003 Ordinance on Population in order to stabilise birth rates, maintain the replacement fertility rate nationwide, and reduce regional disparities. The draft ordinance outlines the rights and responsibilities of couples and individuals in population and family planning efforts, reproductive health care, and the freedom to decide when to have children, how many, and the spacing between births.
However, experts note that while this legal reform may be suitable for areas with low fertility, it is less effective in regions where fertility is already high or stable. Thus, a comprehensive, flexible, and strategic approach is needed to sustainably stabilise birth rates.
A need for stable, sustainable policies
In addition to legal measures, economic factors, housing, household expenses, and the cost of raising children are deterring many families from having more children. Financial and time constraints, along with concerns about lacking various resources, are significantly influencing the childbearing decisions of young families.
To ensure the effective implementation of reproductive autonomy, a coordinated set of solutions is needed, including financial support, enhanced social welfare, and assistance for women in balancing work and family life. Amending regulations without accompanying policies is unlikely to achieve the desired increase in fertility rates.
In the long term, specific and harmonised policies are necessary to balance fertility rates across different regions. Some experts argue that a one-size-fits-all approach could be counterproductive, potentially widening demographic disparities between areas.
Professor Dr Nguyen Dinh Cu, Chairman of the Scientific Council at the Institute for Population, Family and Children Studies, highlights a paradox in Viet Nam's demographic model: fertility is higher in mountainous areas than in the lowlands, higher in rural than in urban areas, and higher among disadvantaged groups than among others. Therefore, tailored policies for each region are essential. Furthermore, without enhanced social welfare support, encouraging larger families may only add economic pressure on households and society.
According to the "Programme to adjust fertility rates to suit different regions and groups by 2030", approved by the Prime Minister, localities must ensure fertility balance across regions to achieve replacement-level fertility. Specific targets include increasing the total fertility rate by 10% in low-fertility provinces and cities, reducing it by 10% in high-fertility areas, and maintaining current rates where the replacement level has already been achieved.
In high-fertility regions, local authorities must continue to implement and improve policies that discourage having a third child or more, and support people in accessing family planning services.
To resolve these challenges and ensure balanced, sustainable population size, structure, and quality across all regions, a multi-faceted approach combining socio-economic support policies, shifts in public perception, and the creation of a favourable environment is required.
