A collapse in funding could derail global climate targets.
Azerbaijan and Brazil, the respective host countries of COP29 and COP30, have launched an initiative to mobilise contributions from international financial institutions. However, according to COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev, only the African Development Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank have responded so far.
In April, an Azerbaijani delegation attended the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) in Washington (the US) to lobby for climate finance, but the outcomes fell short of expectations. Development banks had previously pledged to increase funding for climate adaptation and mitigation efforts, but the current trend signals a worrying decline.
Studies indicate that from 2035, developing countries will require approximately 1,300 billion USD annually to pursue green transitions and respond to natural disasters. Meanwhile, at COP29 in 2024, developed countries only agreed to raise their climate finance commitments to 300 billion USD per year from 2035, a figure far below the actual needs. Babayev called for joint efforts from the international community and warned that current geopolitical instability is derailing the role of many key countries in closing the climate finance gap.
At the recent United Nations climate change session in Germany this June, debates continued over historical responsibility for the climate crisis. The history of greenhouse gas emissions is closely linked to Western industrialisation, when developed nations pursued rapid growth at the cost of natural resources. By 1950, these countries were responsible for around 95% of accumulated global emissions.
A study by the University of Leeds also shows that nearly 90% of today’s excess carbon emissions originate from developed countries. In that context, the absence of the US from the UN climate talks in Germany reflects Washington’s weakening climate commitment. President Donald Trump, on his first day back in the White House in January this year, signed an executive order withdrawing the US from the Paris Agreement for the second time.
One positive signal is that the BRICS group of emerging economies has adopted its first foundational document on climate finance, which includes proposals to reform multilateral development banks, promote concessional financing, and mobilise private capital for developing countries. This marks an important step forward in cooperation among developing countries of the Global South. The document is expected to be submitted to leaders at the upcoming BRICS Summit in July. It is seen as playing a strategic role in preparations for COP30 in November. A key contribution of the document is to support the development of the "Baku–Belem Roadmap", which aims to mobilise 1,300 billion USD for climate action.
Global temperatures are approaching a 2.8°C increase compared to pre-industrial levels. The warming of the Earth is causing tangible consequences and is now an urgent issue for all nations. However, current climate finance pledges remain a drop in the bucket compared to what is needed.
The reality demands that governments do far more to shift their economies and societies towards climate neutrality. A common position must be developed to counter the perception that "climate change is a burden" and instead frame it as a positive opportunity for green economic transition, helping to avoid severe future economic losses. Public budgets must be used effectively to "unlock" private sector investments for international climate finance.
