Relations among NATO allies have deteriorated since the beginning of 2026, when US President Donald Trump suggested taking control of Greenland, the autonomous territory of Denmark.
The comments heightened tensions between Washington and its European allies while reigniting debate over the future of NATO’s security role in the Arctic.
Transatlantic relations became even more strained after the US President sharply criticised European countries for what he described as their equivocal response when asked to support Operation Epic Fury against Iran. The final blow came in May, when growing dissatisfaction with US allies prompted the US leader to announce the withdrawal of 5,000 troops from Germany.
The mutual distrust between the US and its allies has cast a shadow over this year’s NATO Summit, particularly amid recent reports that the White House is considering reducing US troop deployments in Europe, withdrawing key and difficult-to-replace military capabilities from the continent, and handing greater responsibility for strategic security to European nations.
The summit’s primary focus is expected to be securing consensus on strengthening the alliance’s defence industrial capacity.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is expected to unveil a plan described as a “defence industrial revolution,” involving tens of billions of US dollars in new contracts and procurement orders aimed at expanding Europe’s weapons production capacity.
Ukraine is also set to feature prominently on the summit agenda. Member states are expected to continue discussions on boosting military and financial support for Kyiv.
However, burden-sharing for Ukraine remains a contentious issue. Secretary General Mark Rutte has repeatedly urged member states to share responsibilities more equitably, rather than leaving a small number of countries to shoulder most of the costs.
The proposed “defence industrial revolution” would not only strengthen Europe’s strategic autonomy but also create additional market opportunities for the US defence industry, thereby incentivising Washington to maintain its leadership role within NATO.
At the NATO Defence Ministers’ meeting in Brussels last month, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced that the Pentagon was conducting a comprehensive review of US force deployments and military posture across Europe.
Hegseth also warned that Washington would assess each ally’s level of contribution, adding that countries failing to meet their commitments would face corresponding consequences.
His remarks have heightened concerns that the US may reduce its military presence in Europe in the near future. Meanwhile, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius argued that any adjustment to the US role should be implemented gradually and in close coordination to avoid creating gaps in military capabilities during the transition.
Should the US scale back its role in Europe, European countries would need to rapidly strengthen their own defence capabilities to maintain credible deterrence against emerging security threats. Analysts believe that the greatest test facing NATO at the Ankara Summit lies not in defence spending packages or weapons procurement deals, but in its ability to preserve unity among its members.
To reinforce the alliance’s strength, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has worked to keep the US firmly engaged in NATO. During his visit to Washington in late June, Rutte publicly praised President Trump’s contributions to prompting allies to increase their defence spending.
His approach is widely seen as an effort to avoid public disagreements at the summit while highlighting the security and economic benefits that NATO brings to the US.
For European countries, meanwhile, the summit offers an opportunity to demonstrate to Washington that they are fulfilling their commitments to raise defence expenditure and strengthen strategic autonomy, thereby helping to preserve strong US security guarantees and reinforce the transatlantic relationship.
NATO leaders hope that the joint declaration issued after the summit will reaffirm Article 5 of the NATO Treaty on collective defence.
However, according to analysts, NATO’s deterrent credibility can only be sustained if those commitments are matched by genuine solidarity among its allies.
The summit therefore represents an opportunity for NATO leaders to send a clear message that the alliance remains united and capable of adapting to an evolving security environment.
